Polydata

@endlessfate

#2490

0x5e4c3b5b81171e2ca4ab776ac0d6bba787f9dba2

54d· 9 markets · 468 tradesVol: $26,282,1652026-06-19T23:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

90
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 99.00x15/15
Sharpe 0.83515/15
Sortino 2362976713.98710/10
EV $+0.81210/10
HHI 33270/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Endlessfate is an extremely active and highly successful trader on Polymarket, currently ranked 24th on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Over just six days, they have executed 468 trades across 9 markets, generating a net PnL of over $7.4 million on a total volume exceeding $26 million. Their elite smart score of 90/100 reflects a top-tier trading performance, marked by a perfect 100% win rate.

Endlessfate’s trading style is characterized by a focused and aggressive approach, favoring high-conviction markets as evidenced by their zero sell percentage and consistent use of dollar-cost averaging. Their risk profile appears moderate with a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 and no recorded drawdown duration. The combination of manual and semi-automated trading, as indicated by their bot score of 50/100, suggests a hybrid strategy that balances timing precision with algorithmic support.

The key strengths of endlessfate include exceptional accuracy and rapid trade execution, supported by strong discipline and risk management. However, the extremely short active period and zero portfolio value raise questions about sustainability and capital allocation. Additionally, the profit factor of 0.00 is unusual and may signal atypical accounting or reporting metrics, warranting further scrutiny before drawing conclusions.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+7,409,837
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 52.0 entries/market
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Whale
$13,683,224
Consistent
4/4 days
High Roller
$2,280,537/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#15$7,409,837Vol: $26,282,165

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$7,409,837
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$26,282,165
Total Redeem
$21,092,533
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
9
total markets
Trades
468B / 0S
Daily Volume
$2,280,537
Account Age
54d
since Apr 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$8,933,142
Vol: $20,289,031
Month
$7,409,837
Vol: $26,282,165
All Time
$7,409,837
Vol: $26,282,165

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
25%
1W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$352,446
Win Rate
100%
6W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$1,575,318
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,384,705 (88.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?$2,976,908
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?$2,711,282
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?$2,696,515
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)$560,473
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?$352,443
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)$154,286

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.835
Sortino
inf
HHI
3327
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.812
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
54.5%
Top-5 markets
87.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
78.0
Very active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
8/24
Normal
Peak Hour
1:00 UTC
Median Gap
6s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.0m
between trades
Night Trading
89%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.47
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
15
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
31.2

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
HIGH
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
68% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 3.47 — diverse, typical for human89% at night — bot never sleeps8/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.91 — human randomness78 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 1:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
52
Heavy DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
1 entries
<=5
1 entries
<=10
5 entries
<=20
7 entries
<=50
8 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)15.8%
High (>55c)84.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 76.1%

Other$9,451,907

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
8

Single bracket

<=1
7 brackets
<=2
8 brackets
<=3
8 brackets
<=4
8 brackets
<=5
8 brackets
<=8
8 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/12/2026, 1:53:30 AM17 trades$850,0995 min
6/12/2026, 7:58:12 PM3 trades$400,0001 min
6/12/2026, 8:05:52 PM7 trades$69,9981 min
6/12/2026, 11:51:16 PM5 trades$115,0008 min
6/13/2026, 12:06:00 AM1 trades$5,0000 min
6/13/2026, 12:28:12 AM1 trades$10,0000 min
6/13/2026, 12:34:46 AM43 trades$1,049,99925 min
6/14/2026, 3:56:58 AM10 trades$360,0023 min
6/15/2026, 6:50:09 PM2 trades$12,5001 min
6/15/2026, 9:07:58 PM3 trades$370,0004 min
6/15/2026, 9:17:49 PM4 trades$330,0003 min
6/15/2026, 9:34:07 PM26 trades$2,649,99914 min
6/18/2026, 12:51:58 AM1 trades$400,0000 min
6/18/2026, 1:08:49 AM12 trades$4,000,00121 min
6/18/2026, 1:38:52 AM333 trades$3,060,62614 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-12
06-14
06-15
06-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 52/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event