Polydata

@fengdubiying

#4192

0x17db3fcd93ba12d38382a0cade24b200185c5f6d

277d· 121 markets · 4212 tradesVol: $17,303,666 @AnselFang2026-07-08T08:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 76%20/20
Profit Factor 4.94x15/15
Sharpe 0.4308/15
Sortino 3.03910/10
EV $+6.79610/10
HHI 7889/10
Profit Days 70%10/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Fengdubiying is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked 41st globally with an elite Smart Score of 92. Over 98 days, they executed 4,212 trades across 121 markets, generating a net profit of over $3.1 million on $17.3 million in volume. Their win rate of 82.1% and profit factor of 2.97 highlight consistent profitability, while their Sharpe ratio of 0.43 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns.

Fengdubiying’s strategy focuses on frequent, high-conviction trades, supported by a low sell percentage of 6%, suggesting a preference for holding positions longer rather than quick flips. The trader avoids weather markets entirely and shows a balanced risk profile, combining manual trading with semi-automated bot assistance. The presence of badges like Sniper and DCA Master reflects precision entry timing and disciplined averaging down, while the flat equity trend points to steady portfolio management without large fluctuations.

Key strengths for fengdubiying include a strong winning consistency, disciplined risk control with no prolonged drawdown periods, and a large, diversified market exposure. Potential risks stem from the moderate Sharpe ratio and reliance on semi-bot trading, which may introduce automation-related vulnerabilities. Overall, fengdubiying demonstrates a robust, data-driven approach on Polymarket with a clear edge in execution and risk management.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 76%
Profitable
PnL $+3,133,968
Diamond Hands
6% sell
DCA Master
avg 32.6 entries/market
Win Streak
42 wins in a row
Whale
$10,571,761
Consistent
26/37 days
High Roller
$107,420/day
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

5
⚽ SPORTS#348$266,227Vol: $1,455,988
₿ CRYPTO#896$43,288Vol: $864,156
📈 ECONOMICS#669,609$-85,127Vol: $526,574
🎭 CULTURE#1,750$4,208Vol: $109,075
🏛️ POLITICS#6,707$4,543Vol: $53,030

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,133,968
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$17,303,666
Total Redeem
$11,193,863
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
121
total markets
Trades
3944B / 268S
Daily Volume
$107,420
Account Age
277d
since Oct 4, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
69%
60W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$3,595,113
Win Rate
82%
78W / 17L
Profit Factor
2.97x
Avg Win
$46,174
Avg Loss
$-71,340

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,972,206 (82.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)$818,551
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)$694,728
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)$458,927
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)$442,763
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers$287,705
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)$179,597
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1)$70,649
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner$69,709
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner$61,290
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$57,982

Top Losers

LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3)$-281,124
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3)$-244,654
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3)$-201,624
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meetin$-85,145
LoL: PSG Talon vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)$-76,505
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)$-65,283
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3)$-47,155
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)$-45,000
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)$-44,300
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)$-33,614

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.430
Sortino
3.039
HHI
788
Moderate
EV per $1
$6.796
Kelly %
55.7%
Half-Kelly
27.9%
Top-1 market
17.9%
Top-5 markets
54.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
42.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
10.8m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 6.39 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness43 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
32.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
53 entries
<=2
66 entries
<=5
83 entries
<=10
87 entries
<=20
94 entries
<=50
103 entries
>50
18 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.3%
Mid (20-55c)28%
High (>55c)69.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 26.3%

Other$2,384,787
New York City$4,050

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
87

Single bracket

<=1
71 brackets
<=2
75 brackets
<=3
82 brackets
<=4
86 brackets
<=5
87 brackets
<=8
87 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/4/2025, 4:34:46 PM1 trades$1,0000 min
10/4/2025, 4:42:24 PM1 trades$5000 min
10/5/2025, 4:02:34 AM4 trades$3,0001 min
10/8/2025, 5:39:26 AM1 trades$5030 min
10/10/2025, 4:28:34 PM5 trades$9,0193 min
10/13/2025, 1:52:27 PM3 trades$32,3565 min
10/15/2025, 3:18:23 AM1 trades$3,0000 min
10/15/2025, 5:19:09 AM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/15/2025, 6:16:27 AM2 trades$4,1002 min
10/15/2025, 7:10:23 AM2 trades$8,7510 min
10/15/2025, 7:25:59 AM11 trades$11,9789 min
10/15/2025, 8:38:19 AM1 trades$5000 min
10/15/2025, 8:48:39 AM3 trades$48,1932 min
10/15/2025, 9:56:45 AM1 trades$2,0000 min
10/15/2025, 10:41:09 AM2 trades$3,8001 min
10/15/2025, 11:09:25 AM3 trades$18,8082 min
10/15/2025, 1:49:59 PM1 trades$9,5800 min
10/16/2025, 5:42:35 AM3 trades$13,5931 min
10/16/2025, 6:14:17 AM1 trades$1,0000 min
10/16/2025, 6:39:59 AM5 trades$50,3045 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-18
10-28
11-04
11-16
12-10
01-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 32.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event