Polydata

@flydartball

#17076

0x37d10ffb61998561c5f9fb941c42c952d8fb4e28

360d· 37 markets · 1654 tradesVol: $4,415,8212026-06-12T21:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

76
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 55%13/20
Profit Factor 8.51x15/15
Sharpe 0.4969/15
Sortino 12.66410/10
EV $+11.75510/10
HHI 17954/10
Profit Days 53%6/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Flydartball is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking #170 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $841,241.78. Over 375 days, they have executed 1,654 trades across 37 markets, generating total volume exceeding $4.4 million. Their performance is marked by a very good Smart Score of 76/100, a strong win rate of 74.1%, and a profit factor of 27.35, indicating consistent profitability and effective trade management.

The trading style of flydartball demonstrates a preference for diversified markets, avoiding weather-related events entirely and maintaining a relatively low sell percentage of 17%. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.50 suggests moderate risk-taking balanced by steady returns. The absence of drawdown duration highlights quick recovery from any losses. Their manual approach, as indicated by a low bot score, points to a hands-on, discretionary trading style focused on timing and selective entry, supported by badges like DCA Master and Win Streak.

Flydartball’s key strengths include strong profitability, disciplined risk control, and an upward equity trend, which reflect experience and skill in navigating Polymarket’s volatile environment. However, a Sharpe ratio of 0.50 and zero portfolio value at present suggest some exposure to market fluctuations and possible temporary cash-out or position closure. Overall, flydartball’s profile shows a high-performing, human trader with effective strategies but ongoing exposure to market risks.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+841,242
DCA Master
avg 37.3 entries/market
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$1,871,243
High Roller
$4,990/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#70$572,742Vol: $3,198,169
🎭 CULTURE#9$256,185Vol: $1,021,272
SPORTS#3,534$12,315Vol: $196,380

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$841,242
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,415,821
Total Redeem
$2,586,572
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
37
total markets
Trades
1379B / 275S
Daily Volume
$4,990
Account Age
360d
since Jun 17, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
64%
16W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$912,808
Win Rate
74%
20W / 7L
Profit Factor
27.35x
Avg Win
$48,768
Avg Loss
$-5,095

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $753,994 (80.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$301,149
US military action against Iran before July?$264,162
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$188,683
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?$75,808
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$41,170
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$22,706
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$18,785
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$12,093
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) $10,933
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance) $9,629

Top Losers

FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) $-18,199
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?$-11,975
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?$-1,955
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?$-1,548
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?$-1,190
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Al Hilal (To Advance)$-570
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?$-229

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.496
Sortino
12.664
HHI
1795
Moderate
EV per $1
$11.755
Kelly %
54.2%
Half-Kelly
27.1%
Top-1 market
31.5%
Top-5 markets
75.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
22.1m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.2

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 5.82 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.24 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
37.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
6 entries
<=2
9 entries
<=5
12 entries
<=10
15 entries
<=20
20 entries
<=50
30 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.3%
Mid (20-55c)34.3%
High (>55c)45.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 61.5%

Other$941,645
Madrid$0
Munich$-1,955

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
25

Single bracket

<=1
20 brackets
<=2
24 brackets
<=3
24 brackets
<=4
24 brackets
<=5
24 brackets
<=8
24 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/17/2025, 5:07:57 PM1 trades$990 min
6/17/2025, 5:19:41 PM26 trades$104,56510 min
6/17/2025, 6:57:01 PM30 trades$101,42932 min
6/17/2025, 9:07:00 PM68 trades$96,15816 min
6/18/2025, 8:27:20 PM28 trades$71,24720 min
6/18/2025, 8:53:46 PM20 trades$52,5478 min
6/18/2025, 9:06:20 PM44 trades$118,0889 min
6/19/2025, 1:18:25 PM4 trades$2,6863 min
6/19/2025, 1:26:55 PM5 trades$2,2363 min
6/19/2025, 3:56:58 PM5 trades$9194 min
6/19/2025, 5:40:00 PM26 trades$14,33510 min
6/19/2025, 5:56:12 PM10 trades$3,0763 min
6/19/2025, 6:06:52 PM17 trades$22,78023 min
6/19/2025, 8:11:24 PM1 trades$400 min
6/19/2025, 9:08:58 PM1 trades$1,1500 min
6/19/2025, 10:09:38 PM2 trades$1,1350 min
6/20/2025, 9:36:29 AM1 trades$42,6900 min
6/22/2025, 7:58:33 PM3 trades$14,0891 min
6/22/2025, 8:46:23 PM2 trades$1,9992 min
6/22/2025, 8:56:19 PM1 trades$6,4310 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-20
06-23
06-30
07-05
07-09
07-31
01-31
02-28
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 37.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event