Polydata
Data is 7 days old — refreshing in background...
geniusMC

@geniusMC

#6330

0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44

516d· 1000 markets · 20960 tradesVol: $98,394,2932026-06-29T12:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
HHI 33410/10
Profit Days 19%0/10

Summary

GeniusMC is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, ranking #63 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 694 days, they have completed 20,960 trades across 265 markets, generating a net profit of over $2.1 million on a total volume nearing $98.4 million. Despite this high activity and substantial volume, their overall performance metrics show challenges, including a below-average Smart Score of 30/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.47, indicating risk-adjusted returns have been weak.

This trader appears to favor a high-frequency, high-volume approach with a low win rate of 24.9% and a profit factor of just 0.04, suggesting many small losses offset by occasional large wins. GeniusMC’s trading style is a mix of semi-automated bot and manual trading, with a Sell percentage of only 21%, indicating a preference for holding positions rather than frequent exits. Their trading does not focus on weather markets, and they show a downward equity trend, implying recent performance declines despite notable badges like Sniper and High Roller.

GeniusMC’s key strength lies in their ability to generate significant gross profits and maintain consistent market engagement on Polymarket. However, the low win rate and negative risk-adjusted returns present concerns about sustainability and drawdowns. The declining equity trend and below-average Smart Score further highlight risks in their strategy, signaling that profitability may depend heavily on a few large successful trades rather than steady performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+2,169,326
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
Whale
$23,875,533
High Roller
$34,403/day

Categories

5
SPORTS#43$2,091,209Vol: $94,256,745
CRYPTO#495$71,166Vol: $3,996,015
💰 FINANCE#1,580$3,069Vol: $17,583
🌤️ WEATHER#24,913$7Vol: $8,484
🏛️ POLITICS#283,649$2Vol: $654

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,169,326
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$98,394,293
Total Redeem
$1,110,163
Portfolio
$62,086
Predictions
1000
total markets
Trades
16544B / 4416S
Daily Volume
$34,403
Account Age
516d
since Feb 5, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-63
Vol: $0
Week
$-63
Vol: $0
Month
$944
Vol: $0
All Time
$2,169,326
Vol: $98,394,293

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
176W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$7,946,305
Win Rate
25%
65W / 196L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$13,648
Avg Loss
$-107,273

Top Winners

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$362,773
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$131,148
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?$118,919
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?$54,432
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?$43,848
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?$35,739
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?$34,908
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026?$34,599
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?$25,301
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?$20,377

Top Losers

Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-3,172,011
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?$-1,462,280
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series?$-905,214
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$-900,894
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?$-893,000
Rams vs. Seahawks$-696,438
Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers$-595,540
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-573,562
Texans vs. Patriots$-569,515
49ers vs. Seahawks$-481,767

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.469
Sortino
-0.436
HHI
334
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.846
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.3%
Top-5 markets
30.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
46.3
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
26s
between trades
Avg Gap
12.3m
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
18.65
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 26s — typical for humanSize CV 18.65 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness46 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
62.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
61 entries
<=2
97 entries
<=5
139 entries
<=10
167 entries
<=20
194 entries
<=50
218 entries
>50
46 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)29.6%
Mid (20-55c)20.4%
High (>55c)50%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 15.9%

Los Angeles$118,919
San Francisco$43,848
Chicago$35,739
Munich$33
Dallas$-2,044
London$-2,358
Toronto$-5,656
Denver$-8,611
Miami$-22,114
Houston$-82,644
Milan$-95,749
Seattle$-107,957
Paris$-118,080
Madrid$-243,474
Other$-19,648,339

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
184

Single bracket

<=1
139 brackets
<=2
167 brackets
<=3
176 brackets
<=4
180 brackets
<=5
180 brackets
<=8
184 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/5/2025, 10:20:38 PM3 trades$7233 min
2/5/2025, 10:33:16 PM1 trades$2890 min
2/6/2025, 3:40:18 AM1 trades$1,3150 min
2/6/2025, 4:40:48 AM1 trades$2650 min
2/6/2025, 8:17:38 AM1 trades$2730 min
2/6/2025, 9:45:49 PM1 trades$2,3580 min
2/6/2025, 11:00:38 PM1 trades$60 min
2/7/2025, 5:18:04 AM1 trades$500 min
2/7/2025, 6:19:19 AM4 trades$2,8782 min
2/7/2025, 8:22:04 AM1 trades$7900 min
2/7/2025, 8:59:27 AM1 trades$1,2920 min
2/8/2025, 12:07:26 AM1 trades$300 min
2/8/2025, 6:39:16 AM1 trades$3500 min
2/8/2025, 8:09:54 AM1 trades$2,2320 min
2/8/2025, 11:53:49 AM1 trades$370 min
2/8/2025, 12:03:59 PM1 trades$250 min
2/8/2025, 12:36:29 PM1 trades$4880 min
2/8/2025, 1:03:10 PM2 trades$3,0505 min
2/8/2025, 2:10:49 PM1 trades$430 min
2/8/2025, 2:17:29 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-06
12-31
02-07
03-01
03-16
03-28
05-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
21.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 62.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event