Polydata
geniusMC

@geniusMC

#4630

0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44

469d· 1000 markets · 23323 tradesVol: $98,394,2932026-05-20T15:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.08x0/15
HHI 30010/10
Profit Days 25%0/10

Summary

GeniusMC is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #46 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $2.1 million. Over 694 days, they executed 23,323 trades across 334 markets, generating nearly $100 million in volume. Despite this impressive scale, geniusMC’s smart score is below average at 30/100, and their portfolio value currently stands at $61,267, reflecting recent challenges.

GeniusMC tends to engage in a high-frequency trading style with a relatively low win rate of 38.1% and a profit factor of 0.08, indicating that their losses often outweigh gains. Their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.45, pointing to unfavorable risk-adjusted returns. The trader’s activity shows a notable sell percentage of 22%, and their approach appears semi-automated, combining bot and manual inputs. They avoid weather markets entirely and have badges suggesting a sniper-like precision and a willingness to take lottery-style risks.

The main strength of geniusMC lies in their scale and consistency of trading volume, which allows them to capitalize on a wide range of opportunities on Polymarket. However, the downward equity trend and negative Sharpe ratio highlight significant risks, including poor risk management and potential overexposure. The low smart score and profit factor suggest that despite high activity, geniusMC’s strategy may struggle to sustain profitability long term.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+2,168,508
Lottery Player
31% entries <$0.20
Win Streak
52 wins in a row
Whale
$26,143,138
High Roller
$37,670/day

Categories

5
SPORTS#29$2,095,007Vol: $94,360,317
CRYPTO#454$70,347Vol: $3,996,015
💰 FINANCE#1,448$3,069Vol: $17,583
🌤️ WEATHER#22,847$7Vol: $8,484
🏛️ POLITICS#266,101$2Vol: $654

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,168,508
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$98,394,293
Total Redeem
$2,389,224
Portfolio
$61,268
Predictions
1000
total markets
Trades
18143B / 5180S
Daily Volume
$37,670
Account Age
469d
since Feb 5, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-139
Vol: $0
Week
$-48,491
Vol: $0
Month
$-207,065
Vol: $15,377
All Time
$2,168,508
Vol: $98,394,293

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
176W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$7,946,305
Win Rate
38%
119W / 193L
Profit Factor
0.08x
Avg Win
$13,744
Avg Loss
$-111,890

Top Winners

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines$470,492
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$362,773
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$131,148
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?$118,919
Spread: Heat (-9.5)$100,000
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?$54,432
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 227.5$54,301
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?$43,848
Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5$41,654
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)$38,104

Top Losers

Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-3,172,011
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?$-1,462,280
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series?$-905,214
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$-900,894
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?$-893,000
Super Bowl LIX Winner$-724,939
Rams vs. Seahawks$-696,438
Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers$-595,540
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-573,562
Texans vs. Patriots$-569,515

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.446
Sortino
-0.408
HHI
300
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.786
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.1%
Top-5 markets
29.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
51.5
Very active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
24s
between trades
Avg Gap
11.3m
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
17.93
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 24s — typical for humanSize CV 17.93 — diverse, typical for human31% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness52 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
54.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
91 entries
<=2
138 entries
<=5
195 entries
<=10
227 entries
<=20
255 entries
<=50
284 entries
>50
49 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)31.4%
Mid (20-55c)21.8%
High (>55c)46.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 15.5%

Los Angeles$118,925
San Francisco$43,848
Chicago$35,813
Munich$33
London$-2,358
Toronto$-5,637
Denver$-8,611
Dallas$-20,980
Miami$-22,114
Houston$-82,644
Milan$-95,749
Seattle$-107,957
Paris$-118,080
Madrid$-243,474
Other$-19,450,172

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
209

Single bracket

<=1
144 brackets
<=2
182 brackets
<=3
198 brackets
<=4
201 brackets
<=5
202 brackets
<=8
209 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/5/2025, 10:20:38 PM3 trades$7233 min
2/5/2025, 10:33:16 PM1 trades$2890 min
2/6/2025, 3:40:18 AM1 trades$1,3150 min
2/6/2025, 4:40:48 AM1 trades$2650 min
2/6/2025, 8:17:38 AM1 trades$2730 min
2/6/2025, 9:45:49 PM1 trades$2,3580 min
2/6/2025, 11:00:38 PM1 trades$60 min
2/7/2025, 5:18:04 AM1 trades$500 min
2/7/2025, 6:19:19 AM4 trades$2,8782 min
2/7/2025, 8:22:04 AM1 trades$7900 min
2/7/2025, 8:59:27 AM1 trades$1,2920 min
2/8/2025, 12:07:26 AM1 trades$300 min
2/8/2025, 6:39:16 AM1 trades$3500 min
2/8/2025, 8:09:54 AM1 trades$2,2320 min
2/8/2025, 11:53:49 AM1 trades$370 min
2/8/2025, 12:03:59 PM1 trades$250 min
2/8/2025, 12:36:29 PM1 trades$4880 min
2/8/2025, 1:03:10 PM2 trades$3,0505 min
2/8/2025, 2:10:49 PM1 trades$430 min
2/8/2025, 2:17:29 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-06
12-31
02-08
03-06
03-19
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 54.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event