Polydata

@hightemptation

#13,98196

0x6011655c4afb76f36dd1b08a137a1ba73466b31e

93d· 313 markets · 1179 tradesVol: $170,2372026-06-04T22:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 37.17x15/15
Sharpe 1.03015/15
Sortino 543428.19810/10
EV $+0.1226/10
HHI 5810/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Hightemptation is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #13981 globally with a net profit of $9,252.99. Over 91 days, they have executed 1,179 trades across 257 markets, generating a total volume of $170,237. Their smart score of 96/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent performance and expertise. Despite a portfolio value of zero at the moment, their equity trend shows steady growth, supported by a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 and an exceptional win rate of 96.4%.

The trader favors weather-related markets, which make up 98% of their activity, suggesting a specialization in this niche. They maintain a high sell percentage at 73%, indicating a preference for closing positions rather than holding long-term. Hightemptation’s approach combines a strong risk management profile with timely entries and exits, as evidenced by a max drawdown duration of zero days and a profit factor of 37.17. Their trading style appears focused on precision and capitalizing on short-term opportunities, supported by badges such as “Sniper” and “Weather Pro.”

Hightemptation’s key strengths lie in their disciplined execution and consistent profitability, making them a reliable participant in Polymarket’s weather markets. The elite smart score and upward equity trend highlight their ability to sustain gains over time. However, the zero portfolio value suggests they may withdraw profits frequently, which could limit capital deployment for larger positions. Additionally, the relatively low bot score implies a mostly manual trading style, which might impact scalability under high market volatility.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+9,253
Weather Pro
98% weather
Win Streak
99 wins in a row
Whale
$71,602
Consistent
17/17 days

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#158$9,263Vol: $170,208
CRYPTO#1,087,933$-10Vol: $30

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$9,253
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$170,237
Total Redeem
$6
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
313
total markets
Trades
323B / 856S
Daily Volume
$791
Account Age
93d
since Mar 3, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1,214
Vol: $25,289
Week
$4,228
Vol: $87,290
Month
$4,228
Vol: $81,779
All Time
$9,253
Vol: $170,237

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
180W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$9,273
Win Rate
96%
243W / 9L
Profit Factor
37.17x
Avg Win
$37
Avg Loss
$-27

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $875 (10% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2?$308
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on $298
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27?$270
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May $263
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26?$212
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June $204
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4?$197
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3?$166
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 2$165
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2?$149

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June $-53
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2?$-46
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2?$-42
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29?$-37
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 1?$-23
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 30?$-23
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 29?$-12
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 27?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.030
Sortino
inf
HHI
59
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.122
Kelly %
94.3%
Half-Kelly
47.2%
Top-1 market
1.6%
Top-5 markets
7.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.0
Active
Markets / Day
2.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
20.3m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 216s — typical for humanSize CV 0.88 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.90 — human randomness13 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
237 entries
<=2
245 entries
<=5
251 entries
<=10
256 entries
<=20
257 entries
<=50
257 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)2.2%
High (>55c)96.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 8.1%

Taipei$1,809
Madrid$626
Karachi$568
Wellington$517
Panama City$419
Cape Town$411
Tokyo$363
Singapore$316
Kuala Lumpur$315
New York City$294
Denver$276
Jeddah$250
Toronto$227
Helsinki$177
Ankara$170
Atlanta$158
Amsterdam$157
Paris$157

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
185

Single bracket

<=1
135 brackets
<=2
170 brackets
<=3
179 brackets
<=4
184 brackets
<=5
185 brackets
<=8
185 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/6/2026, 7:11:39 AM1 trades$10 min
3/6/2026, 1:01:39 PM2 trades$21 min
3/6/2026, 1:20:43 PM3 trades$32 min
3/6/2026, 1:30:59 PM3 trades$97 min
4/3/2026, 9:30:33 PM1 trades$120 min
4/4/2026, 10:57:19 AM2 trades$51 min
4/4/2026, 11:34:45 AM3 trades$75 min
5/22/2026, 1:30:59 AM1 trades$200 min
5/22/2026, 1:45:27 AM2 trades$220 min
5/22/2026, 2:00:26 AM1 trades$290 min
5/22/2026, 2:06:28 AM3 trades$350 min
5/22/2026, 6:00:46 AM1 trades$290 min
5/22/2026, 6:14:48 AM1 trades$330 min
5/22/2026, 7:56:23 AM1 trades$290 min
5/22/2026, 8:09:11 AM1 trades$370 min
5/22/2026, 8:24:49 AM1 trades$290 min
5/22/2026, 8:34:41 AM1 trades$1070 min
5/22/2026, 10:00:43 AM1 trades$290 min
5/22/2026, 10:09:35 AM1 trades$840 min
5/22/2026, 10:31:05 AM1 trades$290 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-03
05-22
05-24
05-26
05-28
05-30
06-01
06-03
06-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98.1% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
72.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event