Polydata

@ilovecircle

#4730

0xa9878e59934ab507f9039bcb917c1bae0451141d

262d· 1347 markets · 9233 tradesVol: $53,213,9912026-05-28T12:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.05x0/15
HHI 12010/10
Profit Days 19%0/10
DD/Peak 861172%0/10

Summary

The trader ilovecircle is ranked #47 on the global Polymarket PnL leaderboard, reflecting significant overall profitability with a net profit of over $2.2 million. They have been active for 260 days, executing 9,233 trades across 346 markets and generating a high total volume exceeding $53 million. Despite this activity level, ilovecircle’s smart score is below average at 30/100, and their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.84, suggesting uneven risk-adjusted returns.

ilovecircle appears to employ a high-volume, semi-automated trading style, indicated by their bot score of 55/100. Their win rate is relatively low at 32.1%, coupled with a very low profit factor of 0.05 and a sell percentage of 27%, implying a strategy that likely involves frequent, smaller wins or cutting losses quickly. They do not trade weather markets, focusing instead on other event categories. The trader holds badges like Sniper and High Roller, suggesting a preference for high-stakes, tactical trades executed with precise timing.

The main strengths of ilovecircle include a consistently upward equity trend and a large, diversified market exposure, which supports robust overall gains on Polymarket. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and low profit factor highlight potential risks in risk management and trade efficiency. The combination of manual and bot trading may contribute to inconsistent performance, making their strategy somewhat vulnerable to market volatility or adverse conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+2,203,325
Win Streak
60 wins in a row
Whale
$17,734,514
High Roller
$68,210/day

Categories

6
SPORTS#30$2,129,927Vol: $43,079,210
🎭 CULTURE#31,411$44Vol: $5,181,410
CRYPTO#517$63,554Vol: $3,946,234
🏛️ POLITICS#3,795$9,192Vol: $786,704
📈 ECONOMICS#3,611$592Vol: $214,448
💰 FINANCE#558,108$-19Vol: $4,081

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,203,325
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$53,213,991
Total Redeem
$2,160,017
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1347
total markets
Trades
6779B / 2454S
Daily Volume
$68,210
Account Age
262d
since Sep 8, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$-37,132
Vol: $0
All Time
$2,203,325
Vol: $53,213,991

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
222W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$6,768,788
Win Rate
32%
109W / 230L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$6,011
Avg Loss
$-57,483

Top Winners

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$113,959
Packers vs. Giants$73,748
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championshi$73,544
Commanders vs. Falcons$67,920
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)$59,581
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?$38,663
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?$32,335
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?$27,375
Lions vs. Eagles$26,520
Buccaneers vs. Bills$23,601

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?$-636,046
Vikings vs. Chargers$-392,472
Commanders vs. Chiefs$-323,017
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?$-288,263
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt$-264,066
Giants vs. Broncos$-233,262
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?$-226,171
Arizona State vs. Utah$-222,617
Chargers vs. Titans$-213,030
Cardinals vs. Colts$-189,151

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.838
Sortino
-0.856
HHI
120
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.711
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.3%
Top-5 markets
16.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
65.4
Very active
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
34s
between trades
Avg Gap
13.9m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 34s — typical for humanSize CV 4.39 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness65 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
19.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
140 entries
<=2
193 entries
<=5
245 entries
<=10
275 entries
<=20
293 entries
<=50
322 entries
>50
24 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)17.1%
High (>55c)82.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 18.4%

Los Angeles$15,138
San Francisco$1,710
Denver$6
Miami$-10,507
Milan$-11,988
Toronto$-226,171
Madrid$-365,889
Other$-11,968,074

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
257

Single bracket

<=1
221 brackets
<=2
237 brackets
<=3
244 brackets
<=4
250 brackets
<=5
252 brackets
<=8
256 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/8/2025, 10:31:22 PM2 trades$24,4304 min
9/8/2025, 10:47:26 PM2 trades$5,2340 min
9/8/2025, 11:15:02 PM1 trades$34,8000 min
9/9/2025, 4:07:24 AM1 trades$28,5000 min
9/9/2025, 8:43:38 PM1 trades$8,5940 min
9/9/2025, 10:25:04 PM2 trades$8034 min
9/9/2025, 10:35:10 PM1 trades$80 min
9/9/2025, 11:00:44 PM1 trades$320 min
9/9/2025, 11:14:54 PM3 trades$19,5495 min
9/10/2025, 12:22:48 AM1 trades$2300 min
9/10/2025, 12:41:32 AM1 trades$16,5960 min
9/10/2025, 12:47:34 AM3 trades$68,5441 min
9/10/2025, 1:30:14 AM1 trades$310 min
9/10/2025, 1:37:10 AM1 trades$310 min
9/10/2025, 2:08:52 AM1 trades$45,0000 min
9/10/2025, 2:15:56 AM3 trades$3677 min
9/10/2025, 3:09:36 AM9 trades$53911 min
9/10/2025, 3:27:14 AM1 trades$50 min
9/10/2025, 3:38:10 AM1 trades$1320 min
9/10/2025, 4:13:10 AM3 trades$1111 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-09
09-24
10-06
10-18
11-03
11-17
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 19.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event