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@ilovecircle

#6230

0xa9878e59934ab507f9039bcb917c1bae0451141d

310d· 1347 markets · 9194 tradesVol: $53,213,9912026-07-12T20:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.04x0/15
HHI 12010/10
Profit Days 16%0/10
DD/Peak 865803%0/10

Summary

Ilovecircle is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding the rank of #62 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $2.2 million. Over 260 days, they have executed 9,194 trades across 348 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $53 million. Despite this impressive scale, ilovecircle's Smart Score of 30/100 indicates below-average trading efficiency, and their portfolio currently holds no open positions.

The trading style of ilovecircle appears to be a blend of semi-automated and manual strategies, as reflected by their Bot Score of 55/100. They exhibit a preference for high-volume, short-term trades with a relatively low sell percentage of 26%. Their win rate stands at 32%, and the profit factor is notably low at 0.04, suggesting they take on significant risk and rely on occasional large wins rather than consistent small gains. Their Sharpe Ratio of -0.86 points to negative risk-adjusted returns, indicating volatility in performance.

Ilovecircle’s key strength lies in managing a large trading volume with an upward equity trend and a reputation for high-risk, high-reward moves, supported by badges like "Sniper" and "High Roller." However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe Ratio highlight potential concerns regarding risk management and sustainability. Their below-average Smart Score suggests room for improvement in efficiency and strategy refinement on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+2,203,325
Win Streak
60 wins in a row
Whale
$17,807,247
High Roller
$68,489/day

Categories

6
SPORTS#41$2,129,927Vol: $43,079,210
🎭 CULTURE#32,395$44Vol: $5,181,410
CRYPTO#581$63,554Vol: $3,946,234
🏛️ POLITICS#4,049$9,192Vol: $786,704
📈 ECONOMICS#3,858$592Vol: $214,448
💰 FINANCE#583,477$-19Vol: $4,081

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,203,325
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$53,213,991
Total Redeem
$2,164,976
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1347
total markets
Trades
6777B / 2417S
Daily Volume
$68,489
Account Age
310d
since Sep 8, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
222W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$6,768,788
Win Rate
32%
109W / 232L
Profit Factor
0.04x
Avg Win
$5,334
Avg Loss
$-57,921

Top Winners

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$79,185
Packers vs. Giants$73,748
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championshi$73,345
Commanders vs. Falcons$67,920
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)$59,581
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?$32,335
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?$27,375
Lions vs. Eagles$26,520
Buccaneers vs. Bills$23,601
Texans vs. Titans$23,090

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?$-636,046
Vikings vs. Chargers$-392,472
Commanders vs. Chiefs$-323,017
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18?$-288,263
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt$-264,066
Giants vs. Broncos$-233,262
Jets vs. Patriots$-227,196
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?$-226,152
Arizona State vs. Utah$-222,617
Chargers vs. Titans$-213,030

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.863
Sortino
-0.881
HHI
120
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.724
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.3%
Top-5 markets
16.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
65.1
Very active
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
34s
between trades
Avg Gap
14.0m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.40
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 34s — typical for humanSize CV 4.40 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness65 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
19.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
141 entries
<=2
194 entries
<=5
246 entries
<=10
276 entries
<=20
294 entries
<=50
323 entries
>50
24 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)17.1%
High (>55c)82.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 18.4%

Los Angeles$15,279
San Francisco$1,710
Denver$6
Miami$-10,507
Milan$-11,988
Toronto$-226,152
Madrid$-365,889
Other$-12,258,755

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
258

Single bracket

<=1
222 brackets
<=2
238 brackets
<=3
245 brackets
<=4
250 brackets
<=5
253 brackets
<=8
257 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/8/2025, 10:31:22 PM2 trades$24,4304 min
9/8/2025, 10:47:26 PM2 trades$5,2340 min
9/8/2025, 11:15:02 PM1 trades$34,8000 min
9/9/2025, 4:07:24 AM1 trades$28,5000 min
9/9/2025, 8:43:38 PM1 trades$8,5940 min
9/9/2025, 10:25:04 PM2 trades$8034 min
9/9/2025, 10:35:10 PM1 trades$80 min
9/9/2025, 11:00:44 PM1 trades$320 min
9/9/2025, 11:14:54 PM3 trades$19,7415 min
9/10/2025, 12:22:48 AM1 trades$2300 min
9/10/2025, 12:41:32 AM1 trades$35,1540 min
9/10/2025, 12:47:34 AM3 trades$68,5441 min
9/10/2025, 1:30:14 AM1 trades$310 min
9/10/2025, 1:37:10 AM1 trades$310 min
9/10/2025, 2:08:52 AM1 trades$45,0000 min
9/10/2025, 2:15:56 AM3 trades$3677 min
9/10/2025, 3:09:36 AM9 trades$53911 min
9/10/2025, 3:27:14 AM1 trades$50 min
9/10/2025, 3:38:10 AM1 trades$1320 min
9/10/2025, 4:13:10 AM3 trades$1111 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-09
09-24
10-06
10-18
11-03
11-17
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 19.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event