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@itsjustcheddar

#12,17014

0x2a315a8d15cfde768bcd47ba5cacf3ef5894f2f0

526d· 14476 markets · 44841 tradesVol: $2,652,2662026-07-09T22:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

14
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 35%3/20
Profit Factor 0.86x1/15
HHI 910/10
Profit Days 24%0/10

Summary

Itsjustcheddar is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 44,841 trades across 5,387 markets over 562 days. Despite a substantial trading volume of $2.65 million, their net profit stands at $11,772, placing them at rank #12,170 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 14/100 indicates they are still in the beginner phase, while the Bot Score of 65/100 suggests a hybrid approach combining automated and manual trading.

The trader shows a preference for a diverse range of markets but allocates only 8% of volume to weather markets, indicating some thematic focus. With a win rate of 35.8% and a very low profit factor of 0.05, itsjustcheddar appears to take higher risks or engage in frequent speculative trades that do not consistently convert to profits. The low sell percentage of 9% may point to a holding strategy or reluctance to cut losses quickly. Their portfolio value is currently $5,363 with an upward equity trend, despite a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.18 signaling poor risk-adjusted returns.

Itsjustcheddar’s key strength lies in their high trading activity and the ability to sustain an upward equity trend over time, supported by badges like Profitable and High Roller. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe ratio raise concerns about risk management and overall strategy efficiency. The semi-automated trading style may benefit from further refinement to improve long-term profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+11,772
Diamond Hands
9% sell
Win Streak
21 wins in a row
Whale
$1,204,421
High Roller
$2,143/day

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#4,061$1,349Vol: $831,770
🏛️ POLITICS#5,442$6,170Vol: $462,678
SPORTS#1,788,946$-1,488Vol: $404,709
CRYPTO#52,785$298Vol: $247,203
💰 FINANCE#2,358$1,926Vol: $219,249
📈 ECONOMICS#1,580$2,392Vol: $201,998
🌤️ WEATHER#1,796$796Vol: $156,120
💻 TECH#9,960$33Vol: $58,055
📢 MENTIONS#24,406$5Vol: $361

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$11,772
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,652,266
Total Redeem
$2,461
Portfolio
$5,363
Predictions
14476
total markets
Trades
40855B / 3986S
Daily Volume
$2,143
Account Age
526d
since Feb 2, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-71
Vol: $1,029
Week
$16
Vol: $22,382
Month
$-645
Vol: $29,710
All Time
$11,772
Vol: $2,652,266

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
22%
372W / 1335L events
Realized PnL
$66,761
Win Rate
36%
87W / 156L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$22
Avg Loss
$-242

Top Winners

Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?$731
Will Joey Spallina win the Accuracy Challenge at the 2026 PLL All$178
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2$145
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?$129
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be les$125
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential ele$80
Will Rachel Clark win the Accuracy Challenge at the 2026 WLL All-$73
Will Seth Rogan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Come$57
Will France win on 2026-07-04?$27
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals$20

Top Losers

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between$-2,455
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5$-2,209
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential $-1,962
Will the government shutdown end November 13?$-1,923
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?$-1,907
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12$-1,618
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?$-1,609
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$-1,526
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$-1,495
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 2$-1,109

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.180
Sortino
-0.233
HHI
10
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.181
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
2.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
96.2
Very active
Markets / Day
11.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
22.9m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.5

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 277s — typical for humanSize CV 1.37 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness96 trades/day — mass trading12 markets/day — mass coverage7140 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.8
Active DCA
<=1
1446 entries
<=2
2162 entries
<=5
3311 entries
<=10
4097 entries
<=20
4704 entries
<=50
5160 entries
>50
77 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.8%
Mid (20-55c)15%
High (>55c)81.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 3%

Newsom$0
Dallas$0
Denver$0
Toronto$0
Netanyahu$0
Munich$0
Bieber$0
Paris$0
Your Dragon$0
Madrid$0
Chengdu$0
Antonescu$0
Salman only$0
Salman not shake hands$0
Disclosure Bill$0
Kabrhel$0
Phoenix$0
Austin$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
3.3
Events covered
1639

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
873 brackets
<=2
1044 brackets
<=3
1178 brackets
<=4
1292 brackets
<=5
1397 brackets
<=8
1521 brackets
>8
118 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/30/2025, 3:38:53 PM2 trades$140 min
7/1/2025, 6:57:15 PM1 trades$10 min
7/1/2025, 9:06:09 PM9 trades$460 min
7/3/2025, 12:44:54 AM9 trades$310 min
7/3/2025, 12:50:14 AM12 trades$5470 min
7/3/2025, 1:56:51 AM1 trades$30 min
7/3/2025, 2:44:50 PM14 trades$3930 min
7/3/2025, 8:30:11 PM1 trades$40 min
7/4/2025, 7:00:51 PM4 trades$1690 min
7/5/2025, 2:36:55 PM4 trades$1160 min
7/6/2025, 5:22:25 PM1 trades$2540 min
7/7/2025, 10:53:51 PM28 trades$5420 min
7/7/2025, 11:24:01 PM4 trades$422 min
7/8/2025, 12:12:15 AM2 trades$210 min
7/8/2025, 9:25:21 AM13 trades$1190 min
7/8/2025, 5:51:31 PM2 trades$300 min
7/9/2025, 3:16:54 AM1 trades$90 min
7/9/2025, 4:52:04 AM1 trades$80 min
7/9/2025, 6:57:23 AM9 trades$1752 min
7/9/2025, 2:27:55 PM1 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-05
11-09
12-30
03-04
06-15
07-14
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
8.2% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.8/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 3.3 br/event