Polydata
jesterthegoose

@jesterthegoose

#1,10692

0xbb9c165825e9f233d1f611b50b193fe94513072b

~289d· 792 markets · 14154 tradesVol: $8,796,457 @Jesterthegoose2026-08-01 02:43:53
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

80% (625/781)20/20
4.12x (win $267,306 / loss $64,816)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.83415/15
Sortino 10.69810/10
$+0.0418 per $1 invested2.1/10
HHI 135 (781 markets)10/10
171/228 profitable days (75%)10/10
Max DD 10% of peak ($23,353 / $225,842)10/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 80%
Profitable
PnL $+183,551
DCA Master
Avg 17.9 entries/market
Whale
$4,839,238 invested
Consistent
171/228 profitable days
High Roller
$7,585/day
Cool Head
Max DD 10%
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#42$124,647Vol: $4,432,025
🏛️ POLITICS#2,051$21,777Vol: $2,194,529
CRYPTO#4,132$11,589Vol: $844,430
💰 FINANCE#802$6,830Vol: $526,608
💻 TECH#114$14,705Vol: $291,424
📈 ECONOMICS#1,602$2,749Vol: $243,788
SPORTS#53,187$567Vol: $180,508
📢 MENTIONS#2,211$496Vol: $68,300
🌤️ WEATHER#44,227$2Vol: $1,947

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$183,551
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,796,457
Total Redeem
$169,653
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
792
total markets
Trades
6167B / 7987S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~289d

Periods

#2
Week
$-2,051
Vol: $165,635
All Time
$183,551
Vol: $8,796,457

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
625W / 156L events
Realized PnL
$183,551
Win Rate
80%
625W / 156L
Profit Factor
4.12x
Avg Win
$428
Avg Loss
$-531

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $50,341 (0.2742600967612816% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?$22,813
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$18,027
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$9,501
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?$8,254
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?$8,047
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$6,842
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$6,506
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?$6,451
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?$6,053
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?$5,805

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$-22,190
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$-6,811
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$-4,763
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?$-2,534
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-1,988
Canada election called by midnight?$-1,753
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?$-1,663

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.253
Sortino
0.275
HHI
166
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.043
Kelly %
28.3%
Half-Kelly
14.2%
Top-1 market
9.1%
Top-5 markets
19%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
22.2
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
52s
between trades
Avg Gap
31.8m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.55
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
15 min
Avg Trades / Session
56.2

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 52s — normal for humanCV 5.55 — diverse sizes (human-like)13% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock22 trades/day — high frequency1.2 markets/day — normal55% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
17.86
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.7%
Mid (20-55c)14.4%
High (>55c)75.9%

Sessions

#12
6/4/2026, 12:34:52 AM2 trades$160,1460 min
4/8/2026, 12:08:29 AM5 trades$133,6815 min
6/1/2026, 5:00:37 PM30 trades$125,5041 min
5/1/2026, 12:33:24 AM8 trades$119,4491 min
4/27/2026, 3:10:06 PM119 trades$110,6969 min
6/8/2026, 11:56:13 AM35 trades$102,44816 min
4/30/2026, 7:49:32 PM15 trades$99,8003 min
4/8/2026, 1:12:37 AM16 trades$98,3503 min
6/23/2026, 3:08:19 PM179 trades$93,14150 min
7/7/2026, 3:44:14 PM227 trades$93,08043 min
5/29/2026, 10:48:42 PM7 trades$91,3453 min
3/3/2026, 9:37:07 PM1 trades$89,9100 min
4/24/2026, 3:32:40 PM180 trades$88,68144 min
2/26/2026, 1:36:42 PM21 trades$80,6236 min
1/31/2026, 4:59:52 AM11 trades$77,7276 min
4/9/2026, 12:36:49 AM3 trades$74,8501 min
2/21/2026, 4:30:12 AM1 trades$72,5960 min
5/22/2026, 1:30:54 PM145 trades$70,10119 min
2/19/2026, 7:52:26 AM69 trades$63,82149 min
2/18/2026, 11:12:40 PM27 trades$63,0143 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-01
01-06
04-29
01-02
02-23
05-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 24 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
56.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 17.86/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L9.7 / M14.4 / H75.9