Polydata

@km69

#237,21185

0xc1fa58a3184ebd579583e1423323c8a3a263cafe

50d· 368 markets · 544 tradesVol: $9,2802026-06-03T03:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

85
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 68%19/20
Profit Factor 1.77x12/15
Sharpe 0.3687/15
Sortino 0.7217/10
EV $+0.63210/10
HHI 9710/10
Profit Days 69%10/10
DD/Peak 19%10/10

Summary

Trader km69 is a moderately active participant on Polymarket, with 544 trades across 334 markets over 50 days. Ranked #237211 globally by net PnL, km69 has achieved an $85.10 profit on a total traded volume of $9,280. Their smart score of 85/100 indicates strong performance, supported by a high win rate of 87.7% and a profit factor of 12.05, though the Sharpe ratio of 0.37 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns.

km69’s trading style appears to balance manual and semi-automated approaches, as reflected by their bot score of 55/100. They favor a broad range of markets, including a 10% allocation to weather-related markets, showing some thematic diversification. The trader maintains a relatively low sell percentage of 17%, implying a tendency to hold positions rather than quick profit-taking. Their risk profile leans toward consistency and precision, supported by badges like Sniper and Cool Head, suggesting disciplined timing and controlled exposure.

The key strengths of km69 lie in their high accuracy and consistent upward equity trend, minimizing drawdown duration to zero days. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and modest portfolio size of $193.81 highlight potential limitations in scaling and risk management. While km69’s strategy shows promise, continued monitoring is advisable to assess sustainability in varying market conditions on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 68%
Profitable
PnL $+85
Win Streak
37 wins in a row
Consistent
25/36 days
Cool Head
DD 19%

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#8,661$55Vol: $5,198
CRYPTO#145,294$30Vol: $4,082

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$85
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,280
Total Redeem
$1,253
Portfolio
$194
Predictions
368
total markets
Trades
452B / 92S
Daily Volume
$46
Account Age
50d
since Apr 14, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$4
Vol: $264
Week
$82
Vol: $734
Month
$82
Vol: $642
All Time
$85
Vol: $9,280

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
70%
221W / 97L events
Realized PnL
$896
Win Rate
88%
193W / 27L
Profit Factor
12.05x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $148 (21.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21?$68
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?$40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25?$40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$18
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?$17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$14
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14?$12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$12

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$-3
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 25?$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.368
Sortino
0.721
HHI
97
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.632
Kelly %
73.2%
Half-Kelly
36.6%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
15.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.9
Active
Markets / Day
6.7
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
51.0m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 238s — typical for humanSize CV 1.20 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.69 — semi-mechanical11 trades/day — very active331 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
254 entries
<=2
317 entries
<=5
332 entries
<=10
333 entries
<=20
334 entries
<=50
334 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.6%
Mid (20-55c)50.9%
High (>55c)44.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.7%

Other$513
Hong Kong$190
Tokyo$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
328

Single bracket

<=1
322 brackets
<=2
328 brackets
<=3
328 brackets
<=4
328 brackets
<=5
328 brackets
<=8
328 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/14/2026, 6:15:47 AM2 trades$20 min
4/15/2026, 3:39:10 AM1 trades$20 min
4/15/2026, 5:26:10 AM1 trades$20 min
4/18/2026, 1:07:06 AM1 trades$10 min
4/18/2026, 1:25:38 AM1 trades$10 min
4/19/2026, 3:38:38 AM1 trades$10 min
4/22/2026, 8:59:30 AM1 trades$20 min
4/24/2026, 7:02:20 AM1 trades$20 min
4/29/2026, 7:37:18 AM1 trades$100 min
5/1/2026, 3:50:22 AM1 trades$10 min
5/1/2026, 7:31:26 AM1 trades$380 min
5/2/2026, 6:34:50 AM1 trades$10 min
5/3/2026, 4:53:18 AM1 trades$10 min
5/4/2026, 3:05:30 AM1 trades$200 min
5/4/2026, 3:12:02 AM1 trades$200 min
5/4/2026, 3:38:24 AM1 trades$160 min
5/12/2026, 3:01:53 PM2 trades$25 min
5/12/2026, 3:12:42 PM4 trades$59 min
5/12/2026, 3:43:16 PM1 trades$10 min
5/12/2026, 3:55:24 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-14
04-22
05-03
05-12
05-22
05-29
06-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
9.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event