Polydata

@lil22222212

#1,37165

0xeaca59cb5e10e0be128b005a0f84465d2ed80729

502d· 11826 markets · 15422 tradesVol: $2,572,9372026-05-01T14:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

65
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 7%0/20
Profit Factor 41.34x15/15
Sharpe 0.53410/15
Sortino 11.68710/10
EV $+27.05710/10
HHI 1110/10
Profit Days 29%0/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

The trader lil22222212 is moderately active on Polymarket, with 15,422 trades executed across 5,494 markets over 494 days. They hold a global PnL rank of #1371 and have accumulated a net profit of $105,463.99. Their portfolio value remains at $1,000, and their trading volume totals approximately $2.57 million. The trader’s Smart Score of 65/100 indicates good overall performance, complemented by an upward equity trend.

Lil22222212 appears to adopt a semi-automated trading style, as reflected in their Bot Score of 60/100, combining bot signals with manual decisions. They tend to hold positions with a low sell percentage of 10%, suggesting a longer-term approach or selective exits. The absence of weather market trades indicates a focus on other event types. Their win rate is notably 100%, though the profit factor is listed as 0.00, which might indicate data irregularities or specific calculation methods. The Sharpe ratio of 0.53 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the zero-day max drawdown duration suggests effective risk management.

Lil22222212’s strengths include a consistent upward equity trend and a perfect win rate, supported by badges highlighting profitability and a cool-headed approach. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and the unusual profit factor raise questions about the volatility and true risk profile. Additionally, their semi-bot trading style might expose them to algorithmic risks or market regime changes. Overall, lil22222212 demonstrates promising performance on Polymarket but warrants attention to risk metrics and strategy sustainability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+105,464
Lottery Player
100% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
93 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

4
CRYPTO#258$105,473Vol: $2,571,408
🏛️ POLITICS#737,739$-0Vol: $557
SPORTS#1,117,563$-6Vol: $468
🎭 CULTURE#554,753$-2Vol: $289

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$105,464
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,572,937
Total Redeem
$76,002
Portfolio
$1,000
Predictions
11826
total markets
Trades
13806B / 1616S
Daily Volume
$4
Account Age
502d
since Dec 14, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$23,192
Vol: $80,900
Week
$56,738
Vol: $849,904
Month
$23,192
Vol: $80,900
All Time
$105,464
Vol: $2,572,937

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
7%
418W / 5211L events
Realized PnL
$66,052
Win Rate
100%
93W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$499
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,518 (3.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$508
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$505
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$504
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$504
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$504

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.534
Sortino
11.687
HHI
11
Diversified
EV per $1
$27.057
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.3%
Top-5 markets
1.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
31.2
Active
Markets / Day
11.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.3m
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.9

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 2.35 — diverse, typical for human17% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.47 — human randomness31 trades/day — suspiciously high11 markets/day — mass coverage5654 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.5
Moderate DCA
<=1
1425 entries
<=2
3913 entries
<=5
5171 entries
<=10
5408 entries
<=20
5477 entries
<=50
5493 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)100%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.7%

Other$46,432

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
5494

Single bracket

<=1
5494 brackets
<=2
5494 brackets
<=3
5494 brackets
<=4
5494 brackets
<=5
5494 brackets
<=8
5494 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/23/2024, 1:49:29 PM1 trades$20 min
2/12/2026, 9:26:25 PM3 trades$02 min
2/12/2026, 9:37:05 PM4 trades$05 min
2/12/2026, 10:00:05 PM2 trades$00 min
2/12/2026, 10:15:03 PM3 trades$00 min
2/12/2026, 10:28:41 PM3 trades$01 min
2/12/2026, 10:43:33 PM3 trades$00 min
2/12/2026, 10:58:47 PM4 trades$01 min
2/12/2026, 11:15:03 PM2 trades$00 min
2/12/2026, 11:26:31 PM3 trades$03 min
2/12/2026, 11:44:55 PM1 trades$00 min
2/12/2026, 11:57:59 PM3 trades$02 min
2/13/2026, 12:15:03 AM2 trades$00 min
2/13/2026, 12:22:49 AM3 trades$03 min
2/13/2026, 12:44:41 AM3 trades$00 min
2/13/2026, 12:58:07 AM3 trades$02 min
2/13/2026, 1:07:01 AM3 trades$05 min
2/13/2026, 1:25:07 AM3 trades$03 min
2/13/2026, 1:39:35 AM3 trades$03 min
2/13/2026, 1:56:25 AM4 trades$02 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-27
02-26
03-15
03-26
04-10
04-22
05-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event