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@luggi10

#2,688,02727

0x3a8342133656a0c1e16a6f5b6a44127081ba195b

316d· 171 markets · 260 tradesVol: $133,0852026-05-16T10:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

27
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 54%12/20
Profit Factor 0.83x0/15
HHI 12810/10
Profit Days 51%5/10
DD/Peak 183%0/10

Summary

Luggi10 is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 260 trades across 171 markets over 311 days. Despite a high win rate of 74.2% and a profit factor above 2, luggi10 currently holds a net loss of $3,533.79, ranking #2,688,027 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their portfolio value stands at zero, and the equity trend shows a consistent decline, indicating recent struggles in maintaining profitability.

The trader tends to engage in a wide variety of markets with no specific preference for weather-related events, as their exposure there is zero. Luggi10 maintains a relatively cautious approach, selling 30% of positions and showing a below-average Smart Score of 27/100. The negative Sharpe ratio of -0.07 suggests that the risk-adjusted returns have been poor, and the short max drawdown duration indicates they may exit losing trades quickly. Their manual trading style is confirmed by a low Bot Score of 15/100.

Luggi10’s strengths lie in their high win rate and demonstrated ability to generate profits on winning trades, as reflected in their profit factor. However, the overall downward equity trend and negative net PnL raise concerns about sustainability and risk management. The trader’s performance on Polymarket may benefit from improved timing or adjustments to position sizing to avoid prolonged losses, which currently overshadow their winning streak badge.

Badges

2
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$53,884

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,634,009$-3,526Vol: $133,012
🏛️ POLITICS#1,151,776$-7Vol: $67
CRYPTO#779,780$-1Vol: $6

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-3,534
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$133,085
Total Redeem
$28,843
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
171
total markets
Trades
183B / 77S
Daily Volume
$173
Account Age
316d
since Jul 9, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-299
Vol: $1,932
Month
$-172
Vol: $5,563
All Time
$-3,534
Vol: $133,085

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
54%
91W / 78L events
Realized PnL
$7,949
Win Rate
74%
92W / 32L
Profit Factor
2.07x
Avg Win
$183
Avg Loss
$-255

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,806 (32.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Egypt win on 2025-12-26?$1,039
Gabon vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5$901
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?$866
Benin vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5$563
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-28?$546
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09?$544
Tanzania vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5$514
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-06?$448
Bucks vs. Pacers$426
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06?$370

Top Losers

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?$-2,448
Wizards vs. Bucks$-566
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-06?$-497
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?$-495
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pri$-399
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08?$-391
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5$-336
Saints vs. Titans$-293
Mavericks vs. Pelicans$-287
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?$-281

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.067
Sortino
-0.056
HHI
128
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.308
Kelly %
39.7%
Half-Kelly
19.8%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
14.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5h
between trades
Avg Gap
3.6h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.14
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 5254s — typical for humanSize CV 1.14 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clock

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
163 entries
<=2
168 entries
<=5
171 entries
<=10
171 entries
<=20
171 entries
<=50
171 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.6%
Mid (20-55c)44.3%
High (>55c)54.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 99.6%

Other$8,001
Milan$595
Paris$136
Miami$37
Madrid$-57

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
169

Single bracket

<=1
167 brackets
<=2
169 brackets
<=3
169 brackets
<=4
169 brackets
<=5
169 brackets
<=8
169 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/9/2025, 8:16:57 AM1 trades$10 min
7/9/2025, 9:12:50 AM1 trades$80 min
7/10/2025, 9:15:22 AM1 trades$00 min
10/27/2025, 7:03:49 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/11/2025, 9:01:25 AM1 trades$90 min
11/12/2025, 9:38:33 AM1 trades$160 min
11/12/2025, 6:49:39 PM1 trades$90 min
11/13/2025, 8:40:08 AM1 trades$90 min
11/14/2025, 7:47:00 AM1 trades$140 min
12/6/2025, 3:09:53 AM1 trades$3000 min
12/6/2025, 10:06:03 AM1 trades$3360 min
12/6/2025, 2:34:03 PM1 trades$710 min
12/6/2025, 3:27:35 PM1 trades$5000 min
12/6/2025, 6:04:51 PM3 trades$1,3611 min
12/6/2025, 7:21:49 PM1 trades$8700 min
12/6/2025, 7:54:27 PM1 trades$6000 min
12/6/2025, 8:29:07 PM1 trades$1030 min
12/6/2025, 8:37:53 PM1 trades$7350 min
12/6/2025, 9:10:43 PM2 trades$1,1611 min
12/7/2025, 12:25:09 AM1 trades$5610 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-11
12-09
12-23
01-02
01-12
03-04
05-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event