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mitchmarner

@mitchmarner

#44,20084

0x962acb913594232d2f59179dc87191bdec7aaa6c

163d· 81 markets · 208 tradesVol: $30,9252026-07-19T23:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 66%18/20
Profit Factor 2.57x15/15
Sharpe 0.2875/15
Sortino 0.9419/10
EV $+0.63510/10
HHI 8128/10
Profit Days 62%8/10
DD/Peak 14%10/10

Summary

Mitchmarner is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 208 trades over 306 days and a net PnL of $2,431.37, ranking #44,200 globally. With a total trading volume of $30,925 and an equity value of $3,254.09, Mitchmarner maintains a consistent presence, reflected in a very good Smart Score of 84/100. The trader exhibits a stable equity trend and a win rate of 67.6%, indicating a steady performance.

Mitchmarner tends to engage across a diverse set of 81 markets but does not participate in weather markets. The trading style appears to be manual, as indicated by a low bot score of 10/100, suggesting hands-on decision-making. The risk profile is moderate, supported by a profit factor of 3.70 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.29, with a quick recovery from drawdowns (max drawdown duration of zero days). The sell percentage of 24% shows a balanced approach between holding and exiting positions.

Strengths for Mitchmarner include a strong win streak, consistency, and a cool-headed approach under pressure, as highlighted by their badges. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the flat equity trend suggests limited recent growth. Overall, Mitchmarner’s solid consistency and disciplined strategy are key assets, while the lack of aggressive growth could be a potential limitation.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 66%
Profitable
PnL $+2,431
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Consistent
25/40 days
Cool Head
DD 14%

Categories

5
💰 FINANCE#2,774$1,637Vol: $17,682
🏛️ POLITICS#18,823$922Vol: $7,667
SPORTS#1,720,131$-173Vol: $3,009
📢 MENTIONS#137,141$-20Vol: $209
🎭 CULTURE#659,772$-7Vol: $23

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,431
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$30,925
Total Redeem
$12,141
Portfolio
$3,254
Predictions
81
total markets
Trades
157B / 51S
Daily Volume
$60
Account Age
163d
since Feb 13, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-13
Vol: $0
Week
$-338
Vol: $0
Month
$-46
Vol: $5,691
All Time
$2,431
Vol: $30,925

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
64%
43W / 24L events
Realized PnL
$2,250
Win Rate
68%
50W / 24L
Profit Factor
3.7x
Avg Win
$68
Avg Loss
$-39

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,676 (67.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June?$899
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?$453
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?$324
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$181
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representativ$163
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$136
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democrati$130
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$115
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?$94

Top Losers

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$-206
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?$-145
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage $-86
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Mai$-58
Canadiens vs. Lightning$-54
Oilers vs. Blues$-50
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?$-45
Sabres vs. Canadiens$-44
Bruins vs. Sabres$-40
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Car$-34

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.287
Sortino
0.941
HHI
812
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.635
Kelly %
18.4%
Half-Kelly
9.2%
Top-1 market
18%
Top-5 markets
56%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.18
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 459s — typical for humanSize CV 2.18 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.82 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
58 entries
<=2
65 entries
<=5
75 entries
<=10
79 entries
<=20
81 entries
<=50
81 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.2%
Mid (20-55c)10.2%
High (>55c)86.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 26.2%

Other$2,496
Miami$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
67

Single bracket

<=1
58 brackets
<=2
63 brackets
<=3
66 brackets
<=4
67 brackets
<=5
67 brackets
<=8
67 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/2/2026, 8:41:13 PM2 trades$253 min
3/2/2026, 8:55:17 PM1 trades$10 min
3/2/2026, 9:33:29 PM1 trades$200 min
3/2/2026, 9:41:15 PM1 trades$200 min
3/2/2026, 10:07:43 PM1 trades$20 min
3/2/2026, 10:12:51 PM2 trades$103 min
3/2/2026, 10:52:55 PM1 trades$100 min
3/2/2026, 11:57:29 PM2 trades$64 min
3/3/2026, 12:29:57 AM1 trades$130 min
3/3/2026, 1:36:45 AM1 trades$200 min
3/3/2026, 4:46:43 AM1 trades$430 min
3/3/2026, 5:25:59 AM1 trades$230 min
3/3/2026, 5:33:13 AM1 trades$500 min
3/3/2026, 6:56:49 AM3 trades$154 min
3/3/2026, 3:07:41 PM1 trades$100 min
3/3/2026, 3:44:05 PM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2026, 4:21:53 PM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2026, 4:51:51 PM1 trades$140 min
3/3/2026, 5:17:19 PM1 trades$70 min
3/3/2026, 5:30:51 PM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-08
03-21
04-11
05-14
05-26
08-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event