Polydata
mitchmarner

@mitchmarner

#51,26382

0x962acb913594232d2f59179dc87191bdec7aaa6c

119d· 73 markets · 173 tradesVol: $23,8682026-06-12T16:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 66%18/20
Profit Factor 2.45x15/15
Sharpe 0.3156/15
Sortino 0.7067/10
EV $+0.56710/10
HHI 9218/10
Profit Days 64%8/10
DD/Peak 21%10/10

Summary

Mitchmarner is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 173 trades executed over 306 days and participation in 73 different markets. Currently ranked #51,263 globally by net PnL, mitchmarner has achieved a net profit of $1,843.28 on a total traded volume of $23,868. Their portfolio value stands at $2,785.46, supported by a solid win rate of 69.1% and a profit factor of 3.11, indicating profitable and efficient trading. The trader’s Smart Score of 82/100 reflects very good skill and consistency.

Mitchmarner favors a diversified approach across many markets rather than concentrating on specific categories, as evidenced by their involvement in 73 markets and zero exposure to weather markets. Their trading style appears conservative to moderate risk, shown by a Sharpe ratio of 0.31 and a maximum drawdown duration of zero days, suggesting quick recovery from losses or minimal drawdowns. The relatively low sell percentage (27%) implies a tendency to hold positions rather than frequent flipping. As a manual trader with a low bot score, mitchmarner relies on human judgment, which is supported by badges denoting precision, consistency, and composure.

The key strengths of mitchmarner include a strong win rate, upward equity trend, and a high profit factor, which demonstrate robust trading performance on Polymarket. Their ability to maintain cool-headedness and consistency across many trades adds to their reliability. Potential risks stem from a modest Sharpe ratio, indicating room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns, and their manual trading approach may limit scalability or responsiveness compared to algorithmic methods. Overall, mitchmarner’s data profile suggests a solid, disciplined trader with steady growth and manageable risk.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 66%
Profitable
PnL $+1,843
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Consistent
23/36 days
Cool Head
DD 21%

Categories

5
💰 FINANCE#4,200$898Vol: $11,721
🏛️ POLITICS#18,621$922Vol: $7,667
SPORTS#1,328,284$-18Vol: $2,167
📢 MENTIONS#133,508$-20Vol: $209
🎭 CULTURE#651,081$-7Vol: $23

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,843
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$23,868
Total Redeem
$7,938
Portfolio
$2,785
Predictions
73
total markets
Trades
127B / 46S
Daily Volume
$44
Account Age
119d
since Feb 13, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$236
Vol: $363
Week
$279
Vol: $3,075
Month
$729
Vol: $6,142
All Time
$1,843
Vol: $23,868

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
66%
40W / 21L events
Realized PnL
$1,354
Win Rate
69%
47W / 21L
Profit Factor
3.11x
Avg Win
$52
Avg Loss
$-37

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $953 (57.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?$453
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?$324
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$177
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representativ$163
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$136
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democrati$130
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$115
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?$94
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215-$220 on the final day of trading$76

Top Losers

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$-208
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?$-145
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage $-86
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Mai$-59
Oilers vs. Blues$-50
Bruins vs. Sabres$-40
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Car$-34
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?$-31
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 10?$-31
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?$-29

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.315
Sortino
0.706
HHI
921
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.567
Kelly %
27.2%
Half-Kelly
13.6%
Top-1 market
19.4%
Top-5 markets
57.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.7h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.53
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 569s — typical for humanSize CV 2.53 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.87 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.7
Single entry
<=1
53 entries
<=2
60 entries
<=5
69 entries
<=10
73 entries
<=20
73 entries
<=50
73 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.9%
Mid (20-55c)11.8%
High (>55c)84.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 36.1%

Other$1,656

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
61

Single bracket

<=1
53 brackets
<=2
58 brackets
<=3
60 brackets
<=4
61 brackets
<=5
61 brackets
<=8
61 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/2/2026, 8:41:13 PM2 trades$253 min
3/2/2026, 8:55:17 PM1 trades$10 min
3/2/2026, 9:33:29 PM1 trades$200 min
3/2/2026, 9:41:15 PM1 trades$200 min
3/2/2026, 10:07:43 PM1 trades$20 min
3/2/2026, 10:12:51 PM2 trades$103 min
3/2/2026, 10:52:55 PM1 trades$100 min
3/2/2026, 11:57:29 PM2 trades$64 min
3/3/2026, 12:29:57 AM1 trades$130 min
3/3/2026, 1:36:45 AM1 trades$200 min
3/3/2026, 4:46:43 AM1 trades$430 min
3/3/2026, 5:25:59 AM1 trades$230 min
3/3/2026, 5:33:13 AM1 trades$500 min
3/3/2026, 6:56:49 AM3 trades$154 min
3/3/2026, 3:07:41 PM1 trades$100 min
3/3/2026, 3:44:05 PM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2026, 4:21:53 PM1 trades$30 min
3/3/2026, 4:51:51 PM1 trades$140 min
3/3/2026, 5:17:19 PM1 trades$70 min
3/3/2026, 5:30:51 PM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-08
03-21
04-11
05-14
06-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event