Polydata
Data is 18 days old — refreshing in background...

@mythirdtry

#2,203,66348

0xde5dd972055ad98312554b647158cf3731d81417

68d· 521 markets · 521 tradesVol: $1,2272026-06-30T20:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

48
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 55%12/20
Profit Factor 149.96x15/15
EV $+0.38410/10
HHI 2910/10
Profit Days 33%1/10
DD/Peak 4418%0/10

Summary

Mythirdtry is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having completed 521 trades across 520 markets over 50 days. Despite a high win rate of 99.7%, mythirdtry holds a net PnL of negative $39.50 and ranks #2,203,663 globally, indicating limited overall profitability. Their portfolio value is currently zero, and they have an average Smart Score of 48/100, reflecting an average performance level.

The trader shows a preference for numerous short-term or low-volume markets given the high number of markets traded relative to volume. With a Profit Factor of 149.96 and zero sells, mythirdtry appears to hold positions without closing them, aligning with their Diamond Hands badge and a notable win streak. Their negative Sharpe Ratio (-0.66) suggests risk-taking that has not yielded consistent returns, and the semi-bot score (45/100) indicates a combination of automated and manual trading.

Mythirdtry’s key strength is their persistence and extremely high win rate, suggesting disciplined entry points. However, the downward equity trend and negative net PnL raise concerns about capital management and exit strategy. The absence of sells and zero portfolio value imply positions may expire worthless or not be actively closed, exposing mythirdtry to risks of capital erosion despite frequent wins on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
314 wins in a row

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,312,373$-40Vol: $1,227

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-40
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,227
Total Redeem
$784
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
521
total markets
Trades
521B / 0S
Daily Volume
$16
Account Age
68d
since May 11, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$7
Vol: $105
Week
$9
Vol: $188
Month
$1
Vol: $569
All Time
$-40
Vol: $1,227

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
170W / 141L events
Realized PnL
$143
Win Rate
100%
370W / 1L
Profit Factor
149.96x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $15 (6.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$3

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.665
Sortino
-0.712
HHI
30
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.384
Kelly %
99.3%
Half-Kelly
49.7%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.4
Active
Markets / Day
10.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
24.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 1444s — typical for humanSize CV 0.73 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clock10 trades/day — very active10 markets/day — mass coverage391 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
519 entries
<=2
520 entries
<=5
520 entries
<=10
520 entries
<=20
520 entries
<=50
520 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.6%
Mid (20-55c)5.4%
High (>55c)94%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.6%

Other$217

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
520

Single bracket

<=1
520 brackets
<=2
520 brackets
<=3
520 brackets
<=4
520 brackets
<=5
520 brackets
<=8
520 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/11/2026, 7:52:39 PM2 trades$24 min
5/15/2026, 10:29:59 PM1 trades$10 min
5/16/2026, 12:14:59 AM1 trades$10 min
5/16/2026, 6:05:01 AM1 trades$10 min
5/16/2026, 6:30:01 AM1 trades$10 min
5/16/2026, 2:30:02 PM1 trades$10 min
5/16/2026, 3:15:02 PM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 8:34:48 AM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 8:39:49 AM2 trades$25 min
5/17/2026, 8:49:48 AM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 8:54:50 AM2 trades$25 min
5/17/2026, 9:19:47 AM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 9:24:49 AM2 trades$25 min
5/17/2026, 10:39:50 AM2 trades$25 min
5/17/2026, 12:29:48 PM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 12:39:46 PM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 1:24:50 PM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 9:27:12 PM1 trades$10 min
5/17/2026, 9:36:39 PM2 trades$25 min
5/17/2026, 9:46:30 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-11
05-27
06-03
06-09
06-15
06-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event