Polydata

@pertinaxkosta

#13,95295

0xdafdc201e4a769c4424462f9210763b221da2ad4

89d· 348 markets · 2058 tradesVol: $484,2932026-07-15T13:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 84%20/20
Profit Factor 444.34x15/15
Sharpe 0.51410/15
Sortino 886747.79710/10
EV $+0.20110/10
HHI 24310/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Pertinaxkosta is an elite trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #13,952 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 38 days, they have executed 2,058 trades across 326 markets, generating a net profit of $10,264.38 from a total volume of $484,293. Their Smart Score of 95/100 reflects high skill, and despite an equity value of zero, their portfolio shows a clear upward trend with a Sharpe ratio of 0.51 indicating moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trader predominantly focuses on weather-related markets, accounting for 98% of their activity. Pertinaxkosta exhibits a high win rate of 80.3% and a strong profit factor of 3.80, suggesting disciplined entry and exit points. Their trading style appears to blend manual and semi-automated strategies, with a Bot Score of 40/100. The sell percentage of 27% reveals a tendency to hold winning positions rather than frequent profit-taking. Their badges, including Sniper and Contrarian, hint at a strategic approach that balances selective timing with occasional contrarian bets.

Pertinaxkosta’s key strengths lie in consistent profitability and a focused market niche, supported by strong risk management as indicated by zero drawdown duration. However, heavy concentration in weather markets could pose sector-specific risks if conditions change abruptly. Additionally, the semi-bot trading approach may introduce operational dependency risks. Overall, pertinaxkosta demonstrates effective trading skills on Polymarket but should monitor market diversification and automated strategy limitations.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 84%
Profitable
PnL $+10,264
Lottery Player
61% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
76% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
98% weather
Win Streak
43 wins in a row
Whale
$71,225
Consistent
25/25 days
High Roller
$1,874/day

Categories

4
🌤️ WEATHER#176$10,193Vol: $480,622
🏛️ POLITICS#74,974$72Vol: $3,155
SPORTS#1,122,448$-3Vol: $414
CRYPTO#367,054$2Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,264
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$484,293
Total Redeem
$49,766
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
348
total markets
Trades
1495B / 563S
Daily Volume
$1,874
Account Age
89d
since Apr 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$10,264
Vol: $484,293

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
83%
77W / 16L events
Realized PnL
$22,169
Win Rate
80%
187W / 46L
Profit Factor
3.8x
Avg Win
$97
Avg Loss
$-104

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,635 (64.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27?$4,582
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?$2,093
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?$1,960
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?$1,136
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May$900
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F o$599
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F o$527
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on May 1$444
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F o$413
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25?$386

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?$-1,992
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20?$-646
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?$-618
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 19?$-254
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 19?$-155
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 19?$-155
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on May 19?$-155
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C or below on May 19$-155
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F $-112
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F o$-98

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.514
Sortino
inf
HHI
243
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.201
Kelly %
64.3%
Half-Kelly
32.2%
Top-1 market
7.1%
Top-5 markets
26.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
59.2
Very active
Markets / Day
9.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
19.0m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.56
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 66s — typical for humanSize CV 4.56 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.17 — human randomness59 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
134 entries
<=2
187 entries
<=5
244 entries
<=10
276 entries
<=20
303 entries
<=50
318 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)61.4%
Mid (20-55c)14.9%
High (>55c)23.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 45.1%

London$8,086
Shenzhen$2,373
New York City$1,996
Moscow$479
Madrid$465
Ankara$430
Jakarta$311
Warsaw$215
Other$71
Paris$38
Hong Kong$37
Tokyo$36
San Francisco$33
Chicago$30
Cape Town$10
Wellington$7
Istanbul$7
Toronto$3

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.6
Events covered
127

Moderate coverage

<=1
63 brackets
<=2
85 brackets
<=3
98 brackets
<=4
109 brackets
<=5
116 brackets
<=8
120 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/23/2026, 1:14:16 PM1 trades$30 min
4/23/2026, 2:27:00 PM2 trades$230 min
4/23/2026, 5:48:58 PM8 trades$624 min
4/23/2026, 6:50:06 PM3 trades$62 min
4/23/2026, 10:45:02 PM3 trades$5315 min
4/23/2026, 11:08:12 PM2 trades$1,7430 min
4/23/2026, 11:27:30 PM2 trades$1812 min
4/24/2026, 12:28:34 AM5 trades$2514 min
4/24/2026, 6:54:10 AM25 trades$402 min
4/24/2026, 7:52:56 AM1 trades$30 min
4/24/2026, 8:55:10 AM2 trades$00 min
4/24/2026, 9:05:48 AM1 trades$00 min
4/24/2026, 9:15:14 AM4 trades$03 min
4/24/2026, 10:51:26 AM2 trades$1101 min
4/24/2026, 12:04:22 PM2 trades$500 min
4/24/2026, 12:13:16 PM1 trades$70 min
4/24/2026, 12:36:30 PM1 trades$70 min
4/25/2026, 3:14:52 AM1 trades$780 min
4/26/2026, 3:57:30 AM1 trades$00 min
4/26/2026, 4:11:38 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-23
04-28
05-03
05-07
05-20
05-24
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.6 br/event