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risk-manager

@risk-manager

#46393

0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd

586d· 730 markets · 111354 tradesVol: $654,425,9352026-05-15T18:40
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 91%20/20
Profit Factor 13.35x15/15
Sharpe 0.4098/15
Sortino 618.70910/10
EV $+5.70710/10
HHI 23810/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Risk-manager is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #463 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 876 days, they have executed more than 111,000 trades across 232 markets, generating a net profit of $321,693.10 from a total trading volume exceeding $654 million. Their portfolio value stands at $248,781.17, supported by a strong Smart Score of 93/100, placing them in the elite category.

The trading style of risk-manager reflects a diverse approach, engaging in a high volume of trades with a moderate win rate of 61.5%. Their profit factor of 0.32 and Sharpe ratio of 0.41 indicate a relatively cautious risk profile, favoring steady growth over aggressive gains. They show no exposure to weather markets and maintain a sell percentage of 38%, suggesting a balanced strategy that mixes holding and exiting positions. The combination of bot-assisted and manual trading, indicated by a bot score of 60/100, points to a hybrid method with disciplined timing and risk management.

Risk-manager’s key strengths lie in their consistent upward equity trend and a zero-day max drawdown duration, highlighting effective risk controls and resilience in volatile conditions. The elite Smart Score and badges such as Sniper and DCA Master underline their precision and disciplined dollar-cost averaging. However, the relatively low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio suggest potential limitations in maximizing returns, and their semi-automated approach may carry risks if market conditions shift rapidly. Overall, risk-manager demonstrates a well-rounded and sustainable trading profile on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 91%
Profitable
PnL $+321,693
Lottery Player
85% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
92% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 332.0 entries/market
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$2,697,925
Consistent
72/75 days
High Roller
$3,080/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#218$27,958Vol: $233,356,147
🏛️ POLITICS#214$209,239Vol: $185,341,578
SPORTS#1,061$51,339Vol: $182,832,507
CRYPTO#2,475$16,299Vol: $38,943,134
🎭 CULTURE#254$28,793Vol: $12,996,333
💰 FINANCE#6,231$485Vol: $650,684
🌤️ WEATHER#259,841$-13,399Vol: $187,666
💻 TECH#1,610$653Vol: $95,650
📢 MENTIONS#6,828$76Vol: $2,677

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$321,693
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$654,425,935
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$248,781
Predictions
730
total markets
Trades
69054B / 42300S
Daily Volume
$3,080
Account Age
586d
since Oct 15, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,040
Vol: $469,736
Week
$-1,067
Vol: $3,566,887
Month
$6,281
Vol: $8,928,675
All Time
$321,693
Vol: $654,425,935

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
121W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$1,761,340
Win Rate
61%
110W / 69L
Profit Factor
0.32x
Avg Win
$2,179
Avg Loss
$-10,980

Top Winners

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$38,288
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?$24,090
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$16,127
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?$15,941
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$10,321
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$8,915
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting$7,800
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$7,004
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?$6,509
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5,162

Top Losers

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$-138,391
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$-60,627
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$-48,123
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$-46,769
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 20$-40,748
Xi Jinping out in 2025?$-32,904
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)$-31,687
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeti$-26,532
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$-24,347
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-24,327

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.409
Sortino
618.709
HHI
238
Diversified
EV per $1
$5.707
Kelly %
28.9%
Half-Kelly
14.4%
Top-1 market
7.9%
Top-5 markets
22.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
247.4
Very active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.7m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
10.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 64s — typical for humanSize CV 10.92 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness247 trades/day — automation320 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
332
Heavy DCA
<=1
10 entries
<=2
18 entries
<=5
26 entries
<=10
38 entries
<=20
51 entries
<=50
66 entries
>50
142 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)85.4%
Mid (20-55c)9.1%
High (>55c)5.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.3%

Seattle$24,090
Dallas$3,074
Miami$1,962
Chicago$631
Other$-547,664

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
92

Moderate coverage

<=1
62 brackets
<=2
75 brackets
<=3
81 brackets
<=4
84 brackets
<=5
86 brackets
<=8
86 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/19/2025, 3:57:17 PM1 trades$1750 min
2/24/2025, 12:52:08 PM1 trades$1730 min
3/22/2025, 3:49:05 AM1 trades$600 min
3/26/2025, 3:53:56 PM1 trades$420 min
4/1/2025, 7:48:16 PM1 trades$680 min
4/6/2025, 6:15:54 AM1 trades$820 min
4/12/2025, 10:51:32 PM1 trades$910 min
4/28/2025, 7:30:08 PM3 trades$05 min
4/28/2025, 7:44:18 PM3 trades$03 min
4/28/2025, 7:55:36 PM5 trades$05 min
4/28/2025, 8:09:50 PM7 trades$118 min
4/28/2025, 8:33:18 PM2 trades$01 min
4/28/2025, 8:52:26 PM5 trades$011 min
4/28/2025, 9:09:56 PM5 trades$06 min
4/28/2025, 9:22:32 PM12 trades$114 min
4/28/2025, 9:44:30 PM3 trades$04 min
4/28/2025, 9:53:42 PM5 trades$05 min
4/28/2025, 10:13:38 PM1 trades$00 min
4/28/2025, 10:23:58 PM5 trades$111 min
4/28/2025, 10:44:18 PM2 trades$01 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-31
08-01
11-15
02-08
05-31
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
38% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 332/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event