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saving-for-japan-trip

@saving-for-japan-trip

#41,78896

0x8b5de720a9699ac39e888ad9bd06c7fec1be57d3

119d· 655 markets · 2235 tradesVol: $70,7792026-05-14T14:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 80%20/20
Profit Factor 3.81x15/15
Sharpe 0.83715/15
Sortino 0.5736/10
EV $+2.31510/10
HHI 6410/10
Profit Days 97%10/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Saving-for-japan-trip is an active Polymarket trader with a solid track record, ranking #41788 globally by net profit and boasting a Smart Score of 96/100, placing them in the elite category. Over 341 days, they have executed 2,235 trades across 316 markets, generating a net PnL of $2,241.92 on a total volume of $70,779. Their portfolio value remains stable at $932.49, reflecting a consistent trading approach.

The trader predominantly focuses on weather-related markets, accounting for 98% of their activity, and maintains a high win rate of 81.2%. Saving-for-japan-trip exhibits a low-risk profile supported by a profit factor of 13.25 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.84, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns. They trade with a contrarian style, rarely selling (9% sell rate) and favoring dollar-cost averaging, which aligns with their "Diamond Hands" badge and a zero-day max drawdown duration, suggesting discipline in holding positions.

Key strengths for saving-for-japan-trip include a high win rate, strong profit factor, and consistent equity trend, which underline their effective market timing and risk management. However, the semi-bot score of 40/100 indicates a mixed manual and automated strategy, which may introduce variability. Additionally, their focus on a narrow market segment like weather could expose them to sector-specific risks. Overall, saving-for-japan-trip demonstrates a disciplined and profitable trading style on Polymarket with manageable risks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 80%
Profitable
PnL $+2,242
Contrarian
87% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
9% sell
DCA Master
avg 6.4 entries/market
Weather Pro
97% weather
Win Streak
116 wins in a row
Consistent
93/96 days
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#640$2,175Vol: $66,685
SPORTS#156,119$41Vol: $3,693
CRYPTO#986,300$-6Vol: $212
🏛️ POLITICS#108,045$29Vol: $179
📢 MENTIONS#31,038$2Vol: $9

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,242
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$70,779
Total Redeem
$12,623
Portfolio
$932
Predictions
655
total markets
Trades
2035B / 200S
Daily Volume
$37
Account Age
119d
since Jan 21, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-176
Vol: $1,161
Week
$-98
Vol: $5,438
Month
$311
Vol: $17,262
All Time
$2,242
Vol: $70,779

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
220W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$9,356
Win Rate
81%
147W / 34L
Profit Factor
13.25x
Avg Win
$56
Avg Loss
$-18

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $616 (8.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 2?$268
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 1?$189
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 14?$159
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 16?$147
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 25?$147
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 9?$142
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 30?$136
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?$132
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 29?$131
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 9?$129

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 25?$-75
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 21?$-50
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 24?$-36
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 26?$-29
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March$-28
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 18?$-27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 22?$-23
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29?$-21
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 29?$-21
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 28?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.837
Sortino
0.573
HHI
64
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.315
Kelly %
68.7%
Half-Kelly
34.4%
Top-1 market
3.6%
Top-5 markets
10.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
37.2
Active
Markets / Day
5.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
40.1m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.86
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 214s — typical for humanSize CV 1.86 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness37 trades/day — suspiciously high319 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.4
Active DCA
<=1
46 entries
<=2
67 entries
<=5
156 entries
<=10
254 entries
<=20
312 entries
<=50
316 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.2%
Mid (20-55c)86.8%
High (>55c)8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 95.7%

Munich$2,184
London$1,824
Madrid$1,503
Paris$1,144
Milan$854
Other$96

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
190

Single bracket

<=1
76 brackets
<=2
178 brackets
<=3
190 brackets
<=4
190 brackets
<=5
190 brackets
<=8
190 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/15/2026, 9:40:43 AM1 trades$200 min
3/15/2026, 9:46:33 AM4 trades$89 min
3/15/2026, 10:00:25 AM1 trades$20 min
3/15/2026, 10:44:11 AM1 trades$10 min
3/15/2026, 11:00:37 AM4 trades$110 min
3/15/2026, 12:32:21 PM2 trades$132 min
3/15/2026, 12:40:07 PM2 trades$111 min
3/16/2026, 11:16:21 AM4 trades$206 min
3/16/2026, 12:04:25 PM1 trades$40 min
3/16/2026, 5:40:19 PM6 trades$218 min
3/16/2026, 8:08:13 PM2 trades$32 min
3/16/2026, 9:32:51 PM1 trades$00 min
3/16/2026, 9:52:35 PM1 trades$80 min
3/16/2026, 10:00:39 PM1 trades$10 min
3/16/2026, 10:55:33 PM1 trades$00 min
3/17/2026, 8:08:11 AM1 trades$170 min
3/17/2026, 8:13:33 AM3 trades$91 min
3/17/2026, 8:28:57 AM3 trades$85 min
3/17/2026, 10:26:03 AM2 trades$30 min
3/17/2026, 10:39:33 AM2 trades$53 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-24
02-20
03-12
03-28
04-14
04-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
97.5% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event