Polydata

@seedlings

#71,98646

0x35e6f6d3b7d55d89615e511954c3ff4316e87a4d

85d· 3856 markets · 4216 tradesVol: $323,3932026-06-22T23:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

46
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 35%3/20
Profit Factor 1.62x10/15
Sharpe 0.1343/15
Sortino 1.35410/10
EV $+0.45910/10
HHI 3110/10
Profit Days 27%0/10
DD/Peak 69%0/10

Summary

Seedlings is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 4,216 trades executed across 1,378 markets in 85 days. Holding a global PnL rank of #71,986, seedlings has generated a net profit of $1,107.31 on a total volume of $323,393. Their portfolio value stands at $8,663.75, supported by an average smart score of 46 and a semi-bot trading style indicated by a bot score of 55. The trader maintains a steady upward equity trend with no prolonged drawdowns.

Seedlings exclusively trades weather-related markets, indicating a specialized focus within Polymarket. Their win rate is a strong 71.4%, complemented by a profit factor of 1.12, suggesting consistent but modest profitability. The trader exhibits a low-risk profile with a minimal sell percentage of 2%, favoring holding positions likely aligned with their “Diamond Hands” badge. Their strategy seems to blend manual and automated elements, aiming for steady gains rather than high volatility bets, as reflected by a low Sharpe ratio of 0.13.

The key strength of seedlings lies in their disciplined approach to weather markets and consistent win rate, which supports gradual portfolio growth. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio and profit factor suggest limited risk-adjusted returns, and their semi-bot trading style may introduce unpredictability. While seedlings demonstrates resilience with no max drawdown duration, the moderate smart score indicates room for improvement in adapting to market dynamics on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+1,107
Lottery Player
39% entries <$0.20
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Weather Pro
100% weather
Win Streak
16 wins in a row

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#1,311$1,107Vol: $323,393

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,107
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$323,393
Total Redeem
$696
Portfolio
$8,664
Predictions
3856
total markets
Trades
4151B / 65S
Daily Volume
$424
Account Age
85d
since Mar 29, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$2,751
Vol: $8,355
Week
$2,751
Vol: $21,928
Month
$136
Vol: $258,736
All Time
$1,107
Vol: $323,393

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
209W / 348L events
Realized PnL
$3,523
Win Rate
71%
20W / 8L
Profit Factor
1.12x
Avg Win
$10
Avg Loss
$-23

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $111 (527.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16?$45
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?$39
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June$28
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 21?$24
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on Jun$12
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on Jun$9
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April$7
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on Jun$6
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 2$6
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F $6

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June $-53
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on Apr$-36
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 24?$-35
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on April$-15
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 1?$-14
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on A$-11
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6?$-9
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.134
Sortino
1.354
HHI
31
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.459
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.8%
Top-5 markets
4.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
49.8
Active
Markets / Day
16.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
14.8m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 146s — typical for humanSize CV 1.76 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness50 trades/day — suspiciously high16 markets/day — mass coverage1661 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3
Moderate DCA
<=1
498 entries
<=2
809 entries
<=5
1194 entries
<=10
1337 entries
<=20
1375 entries
<=50
1378 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)39.5%
Mid (20-55c)9.2%
High (>55c)51.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 13.4%

Warsaw$49
Austin$30
Mexico City$24
Houston$23
Wellington$20
Atlanta$9
Tokyo$6
New York City$6
Buenos Aires$5
San Francisco$2
Sao Paulo$1
Shanghai$0
Chongqing$0
Wuhan$0
Singapore$0
Ankara$0
Tel Aviv$0
Munich$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
765

Single bracket

<=1
382 brackets
<=2
610 brackets
<=3
711 brackets
<=4
750 brackets
<=5
761 brackets
<=8
765 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/30/2026, 5:05:02 AM3 trades$176 min
3/30/2026, 6:09:08 AM3 trades$161 min
3/30/2026, 6:39:42 AM1 trades$40 min
3/30/2026, 6:49:02 AM2 trades$50 min
3/30/2026, 7:09:32 AM18 trades$5210 min
3/30/2026, 7:31:14 AM2 trades$01 min
3/30/2026, 7:39:28 AM9 trades$354 min
3/30/2026, 7:57:38 AM2 trades$11 min
3/30/2026, 8:10:06 AM1 trades$10 min
3/30/2026, 8:20:10 AM1 trades$10 min
3/30/2026, 8:29:40 AM3 trades$33 min
3/30/2026, 8:41:52 AM2 trades$112 min
3/30/2026, 8:49:44 AM1 trades$00 min
3/30/2026, 8:54:56 AM4 trades$16 min
3/30/2026, 9:25:32 AM6 trades$1711 min
3/30/2026, 9:47:12 AM2 trades$11 min
3/30/2026, 9:58:10 AM2 trades$11 min
3/30/2026, 10:09:44 AM2 trades$25 min
3/30/2026, 10:22:54 AM1 trades$10 min
3/30/2026, 10:30:50 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
04-06
04-12
04-18
04-24
06-12
06-22
06-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event