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@smoldog

#13,69324

0xf2f2703d83938e05cba23c819891845d26f01762

53d· 146 markets · 2013 tradesVol: $1,990,2502026-07-04T16:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 28%0/20
Profit Factor 1.12x4/15
Sharpe 0.0561/15
Sortino 0.1522/10
EV $+0.1176/10
HHI 38710/10
Profit Days 35%1/10
DD/Peak 144%0/10

Summary

Smoldog is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 2,013 trades executed across 146 markets over 227 days. Ranked #13,693 globally by net profit, smoldog has generated a net PnL of $10,214.26 from nearly $2 million in traded volume. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 24/100, the trader maintains a respectable win rate of 65.6% and a profit factor of 3.21, indicating profitable trading overall.

The trader’s style appears to be a blend of manual and semi-automated approaches, reflected in a Bot Score of 40/100. Smoldog favors a diverse portfolio, avoiding weather markets and exhibiting a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging strategy. The low sell percentage (15%) suggests a preference for holding positions rather than frequent exits, while the Sharpe Ratio of 0.06 points to low risk-adjusted returns. The lack of drawdown duration and presence of win streak badges imply disciplined risk management and timing.

Smoldog’s key strengths include consistent profitability and a solid win rate, supported by a high profit factor and disciplined trade management. However, the downward equity trend and low Smart Score highlight potential concerns regarding sustainability and strategic refinement. Traders following smoldog should consider the balance between steady gains and the need for improved portfolio growth on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+10,214
Lottery Player
74% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
94% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 11.7 entries/market
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$207,951

Categories

7
🎭 CULTURE#1,559$4,829Vol: $1,400,488
🏛️ POLITICS#4,491$7,917Vol: $408,952
SPORTS#1,770,336$-1,916Vol: $57,519
CRYPTO#40,599$534Vol: $54,228
📈 ECONOMICS#665,949$-1,612Vol: $42,604
💰 FINANCE#6,416$519Vol: $25,285
💻 TECH#235,687$-57Vol: $1,175

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,214
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,990,250
Total Redeem
$49,461
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
146
total markets
Trades
1714B / 299S
Daily Volume
$916
Account Age
53d
since May 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$10,214
Vol: $1,990,250

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
43%
22W / 29L events
Realized PnL
$97,514
Win Rate
66%
40W / 21L
Profit Factor
3.21x
Avg Win
$1,712
Avg Loss
$-1,015

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $30,671 (65% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$20,871
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$5,225
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?$4,574
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?$3,311
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?$3,168
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?$3,052
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$3,004
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2,983
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?$2,915
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$2,741

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$-6,002
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?$-3,336
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$-3,005
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?$-1,804
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and $-1,691
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-1,170
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$-908
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?$-901
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$-491
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?$-418

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.056
Sortino
0.152
HHI
387
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.117
Kelly %
36.7%
Half-Kelly
18.4%
Top-1 market
11.9%
Top-5 markets
33.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
67.1
Very active
Markets / Day
4.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
33s
between trades
Avg Gap
21.2m
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.7

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 33s — typical for humanSize CV 5.72 — diverse, typical for human11% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness67 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
45 entries
<=2
58 entries
<=5
79 entries
<=10
101 entries
<=20
121 entries
<=50
138 entries
>50
8 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)74.4%
Mid (20-55c)21.2%
High (>55c)4.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 67.5%

Other$47,173
Paris$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.9
Events covered
51

Moderate coverage

<=1
24 brackets
<=2
30 brackets
<=3
37 brackets
<=4
39 brackets
<=5
43 brackets
<=8
48 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/16/2026, 4:03:26 PM3 trades$2680 min
5/16/2026, 4:14:53 PM8 trades$1,0674 min
5/16/2026, 4:48:01 PM1 trades$790 min
5/17/2026, 7:28:06 AM9 trades$1,0265 min
5/17/2026, 7:50:21 AM1 trades$9620 min
5/17/2026, 8:29:42 AM2 trades$2490 min
5/17/2026, 8:41:11 AM3 trades$2930 min
5/18/2026, 5:41:39 AM2 trades$7900 min
5/18/2026, 5:47:14 AM4 trades$440 min
5/18/2026, 5:55:53 AM5 trades$2965 min
5/18/2026, 6:04:18 PM2 trades$1,2320 min
5/18/2026, 6:09:52 PM2 trades$372 min
5/18/2026, 6:51:10 PM2 trades$3,3774 min
5/19/2026, 7:09:21 AM3 trades$5,1142 min
5/19/2026, 7:21:29 AM4 trades$1,9954 min
5/19/2026, 7:37:07 AM3 trades$1901 min
5/19/2026, 7:43:34 AM1 trades$1170 min
5/19/2026, 7:59:22 AM2 trades$9721 min
5/19/2026, 8:06:01 AM1 trades$1810 min
5/19/2026, 8:12:09 AM1 trades$4270 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-18
05-25
05-31
06-06
06-12
06-19
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.9 br/event