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@sovereign2013

#3630

0xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debf

343d· 40758 markets · 27104 tradesVol: $399,254,8262026-06-30T02:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.00x0/15
HHI 25810/10
Profit Days 0%0/10

Summary

Sovereign2013 is a highly active trader on Polymarket, holding the rank of #36 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of approximately $3.59 million. Over 198 days, they executed 27,104 trades across 310 markets, generating a total volume near $400 million. Despite a substantial trading footprint, their smart score is below average at 30/100, and their Sharpe ratio is negative, indicating risk-adjusted returns have been weak.

The trading style of sovereign2013 appears to be contrarian and selective, as reflected in their badges and very low sell percentage of 1%. They do not engage in weather markets and maintain a semi-bot approach with a 60/100 bot score, suggesting a mix of automated and manual strategies. The win rate is low at 8.2%, and the profit factor is reported as zero, implying that while many trades may lose, occasional large wins contribute to overall profitability. Their equity trend is upward, showing growth despite the low win rate.

Strengths of sovereign2013 include significant experience and volume, as well as an ability to hold positions long-term, indicated by the "Diamond Hands" badge. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and low win rate highlight risks related to volatility and consistency. The combination of contrarian bets and semi-automated methods may expose the trader to sharp drawdowns, although the max drawdown duration is currently zero, suggesting recent resilience.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+3,588,720
Contrarian
51% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Whale
$11,339,931
High Roller
$57,272/day

Categories

2
SPORTS#23$3,583,998Vol: $399,209,096
CRYPTO#314,194$3Vol: $50

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,588,720
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$399,254,826
Total Redeem
$181,034
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
40758
total markets
Trades
26883B / 221S
Daily Volume
$57,272
Account Age
343d
since Jul 25, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
222W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$7,179,674
Win Rate
8%
25W / 280L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$2,117
Avg Loss
$-39,466

Top Winners

Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic$15,913
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot$15,603
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 216.5$7,345
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves$6,488
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Alexandra Eala$1,825
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti$1,683
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 217.5$509
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Tristan Schoolkate$398
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Emiliana Arango$395
Rome: Jacopo Vasami vs Stefanos Sakellaridis$394

Top Losers

Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats$-1,568,273
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$-428,713
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves$-379,172
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants$-312,548
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?$-218,715
Seahawks vs. Patriots$-157,241
Kings vs. 76ers$-107,710
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev$-103,106
Grizzlies vs. Warriors$-93,058
Tulane vs. Temple$-91,493

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.457
Sortino
-0.457
HHI
258
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.971
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.8%
Top-5 markets
25.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
136.9
Very active
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
1:00 UTC
Median Gap
18s
between trades
Avg Gap
7.1m
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
13.93
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.4

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 18s — typical for humanSize CV 13.93 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.19 — human randomness137 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 1:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
86.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
1 entries
<=2
6 entries
<=5
14 entries
<=10
28 entries
<=20
61 entries
<=50
139 entries
>50
171 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.5%
Mid (20-55c)72.7%
High (>55c)22.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 40.7%

Madrid$18,298
Denver$-16,077
Los Angeles$-33,806
Houston$-40,411
Seattle$-42,180
Chicago$-71,087
Miami$-83,418
San Francisco$-319,871
Atlanta$-379,172
Toronto$-428,713
Other$-9,601,093

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
260

Single bracket

<=1
231 brackets
<=2
254 brackets
<=3
255 brackets
<=4
255 brackets
<=5
258 brackets
<=8
260 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/8/2025, 4:30:18 PM1 trades$1580 min
10/9/2025, 2:32:07 PM1 trades$2,9050 min
10/9/2025, 3:41:29 PM3 trades$585 min
10/9/2025, 3:57:01 PM2 trades$261 min
10/9/2025, 4:03:25 PM3 trades$161 min
10/9/2025, 4:12:33 PM1 trades$500 min
10/9/2025, 4:26:49 PM1 trades$1,9310 min
10/9/2025, 4:37:41 PM1 trades$430 min
10/9/2025, 5:29:27 PM8 trades$6,4025 min
10/9/2025, 5:40:17 PM1 trades$370 min
10/9/2025, 6:17:17 PM1 trades$1,9180 min
10/9/2025, 6:35:13 PM2 trades$1,8230 min
10/9/2025, 6:57:41 PM1 trades$00 min
10/9/2025, 7:15:41 PM4 trades$1,2302 min
10/9/2025, 7:24:43 PM1 trades$1,7690 min
10/9/2025, 7:33:09 PM3 trades$1010 min
10/9/2025, 8:03:47 PM1 trades$110 min
10/9/2025, 8:11:05 PM1 trades$3250 min
10/9/2025, 9:28:55 PM2 trades$1262 min
10/9/2025, 9:42:53 PM1 trades$3250 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-09
11-16
12-14
01-18
02-15
04-01
04-23

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 86.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event