Polydata

@strike123

#3,029,04463

0xf284ad6d607f777f34bc643cea587c33a886b9f9

74d· 597 markets · 13426 tradesVol: $39,851,3862026-07-16T18:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

63
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 57%14/20
Profit Factor 1.61x10/15
Sharpe 0.2465/15
Sortino 0.2853/10
EV $+0.64510/10
HHI 8858/10
Profit Days 66%9/10
DD/Peak 44%5/10

Summary

Strike123 is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 13,426 trades across 252 markets over 87 days. Despite a high trading volume of nearly $40 million, strike123 currently ranks #3,029,044 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net loss of $321,856.20. The portfolio value remains modest at $3,057.66, reflecting sustained exposure but limited realized gains.

The trader’s strategy appears focused on high-frequency, automated trading, as indicated by a solid Bot Score of 70 and badges like “Bot” and “DCA Master.” Strike123 maintains a relatively low risk profile with a 15% sell rate and zero days of max drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk management. Their markets are diverse but exclude weather-related events. Timing patterns show consistent activity without significant equity growth or decline, supported by a stable Sharpe ratio of 0.25 and a Win Rate of 70.5%.

Strengths for strike123 include consistent execution and a strong win rate, which is notable given the large volume traded. However, the Profit Factor of 0.58 indicates that losses outweigh gains, raising concerns about overall profitability. The flat equity trend and low portfolio value relative to volume suggest challenges in converting trades into sustainable profits, highlighting the risk of capital erosion despite strategic automation on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
DCA Master
avg 45.8 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$5,411,208
Consistent
33/50 days
High Roller
$62,198/day

Categories

6
SPORTS#1,856,661$-870,226Vol: $28,447,291
🏛️ POLITICS#3,581$10,611Vol: $6,292,212
CRYPTO#37$497,418Vol: $3,948,931
📈 ECONOMICS#177$37,527Vol: $1,019,712
💰 FINANCE#690$7,745Vol: $137,335
🌤️ WEATHER#293,622$-4,227Vol: $4,404

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-321,856
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$39,851,386
Total Redeem
$379,462
Portfolio
$3,058
Predictions
597
total markets
Trades
11352B / 2074S
Daily Volume
$62,198
Account Age
74d
since May 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$78
Vol: $6,000
Week
$-4,532
Vol: $29,586
Month
$-5,090
Vol: $41,736
All Time
$-321,856
Vol: $39,851,386

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
56%
141W / 109L events
Realized PnL
$4,418,233
Win Rate
70%
43W / 18L
Profit Factor
0.58x
Avg Win
$12,862
Avg Loss
$-52,936

Top Winners

Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev$93,124
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?$85,501
Spurs vs. Knicks$82,095
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$41,797
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca$32,367
Spurs vs. Timberwolves$25,219
Spread: Germany (-4.5)$22,821
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?$20,503
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)$19,783
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?$15,400

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-351,424
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli$-127,553
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli$-123,949
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi$-86,503
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights$-74,110
Spurs vs. Knicks$-39,051
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek$-36,850
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva$-36,456
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta$-21,164
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline$-17,509

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.246
Sortino
0.285
HHI
885
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.645
Kelly %
55.9%
Half-Kelly
28.0%
Top-1 market
27.8%
Top-5 markets
42.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
185.2
Very active
Markets / Day
3.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
16s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.6m
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.8

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 16s — typical for humanSize CV 7.04 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.19 — human randomness185 trades/day — automation452 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
45.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
27 entries
<=2
41 entries
<=5
71 entries
<=10
98 entries
<=20
141 entries
<=50
192 entries
>50
56 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.2%
Mid (20-55c)48%
High (>55c)40.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.9%

Madrid$1,623
Chicago$0
Paris$0
Other$-401,409

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
151

Single bracket

<=1
110 brackets
<=2
131 brackets
<=3
140 brackets
<=4
144 brackets
<=5
144 brackets
<=8
149 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/5/2026, 1:27:28 AM10 trades$3,2867 min
5/5/2026, 1:40:28 AM16 trades$1,5062 min
5/5/2026, 4:50:18 PM49 trades$4,6973 min
5/5/2026, 5:10:04 PM18 trades$4,8856 min
5/5/2026, 6:01:44 PM35 trades$8,2943 min
5/5/2026, 6:17:22 PM3 trades$420 min
5/5/2026, 6:24:02 PM1 trades$1,0430 min
5/5/2026, 8:59:10 PM9 trades$1,0921 min
5/5/2026, 9:15:08 PM6 trades$1321 min
5/5/2026, 9:22:28 PM2 trades$182 min
5/5/2026, 9:38:46 PM1 trades$6,8750 min
5/5/2026, 9:55:16 PM11 trades$6907 min
5/5/2026, 10:06:58 PM5 trades$1,3542 min
5/5/2026, 11:33:36 PM7 trades$2,6630 min
5/5/2026, 11:39:30 PM1 trades$50 min
5/5/2026, 11:47:04 PM2 trades$5920 min
5/6/2026, 6:52:58 PM13 trades$1,1907 min
5/6/2026, 7:30:53 PM6 trades$1,1776 min
5/6/2026, 9:44:33 PM1 trades$5800 min
5/6/2026, 9:53:46 PM15 trades$3,91516 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-05
05-13
05-21
05-29
06-07
06-15
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
15.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 45.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event