Polydata

@tdrhrhhd

#4163

0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4

938d· 68 markets · 8317 tradesVol: $15,008,101 @fortaellinger2026-05-29T13:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

63
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 49%9/20
Profit Factor 13.84x15/15
Sharpe 0.2164/15
Sortino 7.88110/10
EV $+34.04110/10
HHI 40690/10
Profit Days 49%5/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Trader tdrhrhhd is a highly active participant on Polymarket, ranked 41st globally by net profit. Over 1,097 days, they have completed 8,317 trades across 68 markets, accumulating a net PnL of approximately $2.45 million on a total volume exceeding $15 million. Their portfolio value currently stands near $94,000, reflecting steady growth and an upward equity trend. The trader holds a solid Smart Score of 63/100, indicating good overall trading acumen.

tdrhrhhd’s strategy appears to be high-risk with a contrarian and high-roller style, as suggested by their badges and a low win rate of 20.4% combined with a strong profit factor of 8.70. They trade infrequently in weather markets, focusing instead on other event types. The timing of trades suggests active engagement but with a relatively low sell percentage of 18%, indicating they may hold positions longer. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.22 points to modest risk-adjusted returns, consistent with a volatile but profitable approach.

The key strength of tdrhrhhd lies in their ability to generate substantial profits despite a low hit rate, leveraging large volumes and contrarian bets to capitalize on favorable payout structures. However, the low Sharpe ratio and reliance on a relatively small portfolio value compared to total volume may indicate exposure to significant volatility and drawdowns. That said, their zero-day max drawdown duration suggests strong risk management in minimizing prolonged losses. Overall, tdrhrhhd’s performance on Polymarket reflects a sophisticated but high-variance trading style.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+2,452,794
Lottery Player
59% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
90% entries <$0.50
Whale
$3,219,382
High Roller
$2,935/day
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#15$2,377,828Vol: $13,420,532
📈 ECONOMICS#78$77,756Vol: $800,723
CRYPTO#2,775$15,193Vol: $573,735
💰 FINANCE#616,806$-8,016Vol: $92,839
SPORTS#1,666,689$-5,258Vol: $87,650
🎭 CULTURE#4,694$1,046Vol: $12,064

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,452,794
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$15,008,101
Total Redeem
$1,027,611
Portfolio
$93,823
Predictions
68
total markets
Trades
6795B / 1522S
Daily Volume
$2,935
Account Age
938d
since Nov 3, 2023

Periods

#2
Today
$2,296
Vol: $0
Week
$1,900
Vol: $0
Month
$783,583
Vol: $205,201
All Time
$2,452,794
Vol: $15,008,101

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
46%
25W / 29L events
Realized PnL
$2,430,434
Win Rate
20%
11W / 43L
Profit Factor
8.7x
Avg Win
$229,845
Avg Loss
$-6,756

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,416,981 (108% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$1,459,172
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$622,155
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$335,654
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$53,788
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$46,684
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$8,333
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?$1,061
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?$865
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$415
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$154

Top Losers

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meet$-99,980
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?$-42,977
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$-29,275
US forces enter Iran by December 31?$-28,999
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House$-17,197
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?$-10,781
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$-9,775
Netanyahu out by March 31?$-9,001
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?$-6,926
LayerZero airdrop in 2023?$-6,617

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.216
Sortino
7.881
HHI
4069
Concentrated
EV per $1
$34.041
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
62.1%
Top-5 markets
85.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
18.8m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
15.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 122s — typical for humanSize CV 15.82 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
101.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
24 entries
<=2
28 entries
<=5
33 entries
<=10
37 entries
<=20
38 entries
<=50
47 entries
>50
20 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)58.9%
Mid (20-55c)31.6%
High (>55c)9.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 90.6%

Other$2,237,791
ETFs$-20

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
54

Single bracket

<=1
44 brackets
<=2
51 brackets
<=3
53 brackets
<=4
54 brackets
<=5
54 brackets
<=8
54 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/3/2023, 3:12:35 PM1 trades$00 min
11/3/2023, 4:19:31 PM1 trades$530 min
11/3/2023, 4:39:38 PM1 trades$3450 min
11/3/2023, 5:13:26 PM1 trades$150 min
11/3/2023, 6:27:03 PM1 trades$2740 min
11/3/2023, 9:06:54 PM1 trades$2040 min
11/4/2023, 7:28:03 AM1 trades$280 min
11/4/2023, 11:38:04 AM1 trades$2,3780 min
11/14/2023, 7:16:50 PM1 trades$2310 min
11/14/2023, 7:22:26 PM1 trades$3820 min
11/14/2023, 7:56:27 PM1 trades$2010 min
11/14/2023, 8:29:45 PM1 trades$80 min
11/14/2023, 9:02:50 PM1 trades$580 min
11/14/2023, 10:54:32 PM3 trades$1122 min
11/15/2023, 1:04:00 AM1 trades$1,4580 min
11/15/2023, 3:25:04 AM2 trades$1,1702 min
11/15/2023, 10:36:44 PM1 trades$1,3180 min
11/22/2023, 10:06:25 PM1 trades$1,9800 min
11/24/2023, 9:38:44 AM1 trades$1,6600 min
11/24/2023, 2:04:38 PM2 trades$500 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
07-20
10-31
12-29
12-02
01-31
09-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
18.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 101.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event