Polydata

@vip68

#4,28696

0x8d0930676d559cc8fb7d8af0c555791c1820143f

243d· 1691 markets · 3563 tradesVol: $6,310,9812026-07-04T12:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 16.72x15/15
Sharpe 0.77615/15
Sortino 16.65410/10
EV $+6.25010/10
HHI 30310/10
Profit Days 93%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Trader vip68 is an active participant on Polymarket, having executed 3,563 trades across 446 markets over 309 days. With a net PnL of $37,477.88 and a global rank of #4286, vip68 has demonstrated consistent profitability. Their portfolio value stands at $4,799.40, supported by a strong Smart Score of 96/100, indicating elite trading performance. The trader maintains an impressive win rate of 93.5%, though the profit factor of 0.35 suggests relatively modest gains per winning trade.

vip68 primarily focuses on weather markets, accounting for 98% of their volume, and employs a largely contrarian and sniper-style approach, as reflected in their badges. The trader shows a moderate risk profile with a Sharpe ratio of 0.78 and zero days of max drawdown duration, highlighting effective risk control. Their sell percentage is 28%, indicating selective exit timing. The combination of bot and manual trading methods (semi-bot score 55/100) suggests a hybrid strategy that balances automation with discretionary decisions.

Key strengths of vip68 include a high win rate, disciplined risk management, and steady equity growth. However, the relatively low profit factor and reliance on a single market type present potential vulnerabilities if weather market conditions shift. Additionally, the semi-automated nature of their strategy could expose them to challenges in adapting quickly to unexpected market changes. Overall, vip68’s data-driven approach aligns with consistent, if moderate, profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

11
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
Profitable
PnL $+37,478
Lottery Player
61% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
65% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 5.8 entries/market
Weather Pro
98% weather
Win Streak
105 wins in a row
Whale
$328,377
Consistent
103/111 days
High Roller
$1,063/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#35$33,298Vol: $2,877,109
CRYPTO#11,769$3,905Vol: $2,249,452
🏛️ POLITICS#38,557$261Vol: $105,312
🎭 CULTURE#59,615$13Vol: $10,000
💻 TECH#107,506$0Vol: $56

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$37,478
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,310,981
Total Redeem
$220,776
Portfolio
$4,799
Predictions
1691
total markets
Trades
2582B / 981S
Daily Volume
$1,063
Account Age
243d
since Nov 4, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$223
Vol: $6,766
Week
$4,536
Vol: $229,836
Month
$2,972
Vol: $73,644
All Time
$37,478
Vol: $6,310,981

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
75%
176W / 58L events
Realized PnL
$39,907
Win Rate
94%
145W / 10L
Profit Factor
0.35x
Avg Win
$107
Avg Loss
$-4,405

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?$1,240
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?$793
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on Jun$732
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?$608
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13?$565
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?$537
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?$485
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7?$484
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June $481
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 27?$475

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?$-14,238
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 7?$-10,004
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 26?$-7,997
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 5?$-5,023
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27?$-4,066
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$-1,166
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 28?$-955
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27?$-577
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2?$-14
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?$-13

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.776
Sortino
16.654
HHI
303
Diversified
EV per $1
$6.250
Kelly %
41.7%
Half-Kelly
20.8%
Top-1 market
12.1%
Top-5 markets
25.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
27.4
Active
Markets / Day
3.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
36.4m
between trades
Night Trading
43%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.56
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 182s — typical for humanSize CV 4.56 — diverse, typical for human43% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness27 trades/day — suspiciously high416 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.8
Active DCA
<=1
118 entries
<=2
193 entries
<=5
305 entries
<=10
385 entries
<=20
432 entries
<=50
444 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)61.2%
Mid (20-55c)5.1%
High (>55c)33.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 24.6%

Beijing$3,639
Guangzhou$2,534
Chongqing$2,232
Wuhan$937
Qingdao$176
Shenzhen$108
Seoul$41
Chengdu$-5,898
Other$-6,149
Shanghai$-26,178

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
225

Moderate coverage

<=1
109 brackets
<=2
171 brackets
<=3
197 brackets
<=4
212 brackets
<=5
218 brackets
<=8
224 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/24/2026, 7:08:32 AM1 trades$900 min
2/24/2026, 8:49:10 AM1 trades$90 min
2/24/2026, 12:33:24 PM1 trades$3970 min
2/24/2026, 1:35:20 PM1 trades$180 min
2/24/2026, 4:48:44 PM1 trades$60 min
2/24/2026, 5:10:34 PM4 trades$1775 min
2/24/2026, 5:34:00 PM1 trades$10 min
2/24/2026, 5:54:14 PM3 trades$2838 min
2/24/2026, 6:13:56 PM1 trades$100 min
2/24/2026, 6:34:22 PM2 trades$182 min
2/24/2026, 6:53:30 PM3 trades$348 min
2/24/2026, 7:24:50 PM1 trades$1790 min
2/24/2026, 7:30:30 PM2 trades$1943 min
2/25/2026, 3:32:02 AM1 trades$3600 min
2/25/2026, 8:15:12 AM1 trades$110 min
2/25/2026, 9:18:50 AM1 trades$190 min
2/25/2026, 9:24:44 AM1 trades$8690 min
2/26/2026, 4:20:52 AM2 trades$1103 min
2/26/2026, 4:29:20 AM1 trades$1900 min
2/26/2026, 4:37:42 AM1 trades$80 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-25
03-19
04-12
05-05
05-27
06-14
07-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event