Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?

0xb7867ccbeebaaa4a51278c4b7bb08c5d7de8e5d4e48f6150f03cc776dce2f817

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 98.3% · CLOB volume $72.7k · whales 24h net $793 (11 wallets) · 7d net $3.9k · 11/11 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

98.3%

Yes

Implied No

1.8%

Volume

$72.7k

CLOB

Traders

278

1,119 trades

Yes 98.3%No 1.8%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$793

Buy

$1.2k

Sell

$426

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$3.9k

Buy

$6.0k

Sell

$2.1k

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 98.3%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($793)
•7d whale net still positive ($3.9k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-07-21 15:09:58

99.3¢$2

—BUY2026-07-21 15:09:58

0.7¢$0

NOBUY2026-07-21 12:26:12

99.3¢$1

—BUY2026-07-21 12:26:12

0.7¢$0

YESBUY2026-07-21 12:26:09

2.8¢

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xefac…c9a1	740	$16.3k	$-4.4k	10
0xd87d…ae50	262	$13.1k	$-4.9k	7
0xe1f1…3a05	200	$11.3k	$-11.0k	4
0x006a…9680	54	$10.9k

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