VanillaNinja

@VanillaNinja

#3,54943

0x04d7c77a54dd1e75383e6cc0ca81814be8b6b035

~382d· 682 markets · 20270 tradesVol: $4,114,0702026-08-02 06:37:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

43
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

51% (349/682)10.6/20
1.09x (win $129,782 / loss $119,509)3.6/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.3286.1/15
Sortino 0.4774.8/10
$+0.0196 per $1 invested1/10
HHI 258 (682 markets)10/10
116/206 profitable days (56%)6.6/10
Max DD 151% of peak ($43,235 / $28,555)0/10

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+49,979
Lottery Player
73% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 29.7 entries/market
Whale
$523,845 invested
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
84% maker orders

Categories

6
🎭 CULTURE#194$38,294Vol: $3,163,284
SPORTS#10,717$4,222Vol: $418,247
CRYPTO#28,450$1,123Vol: $185,472
🏛️ POLITICS#12,878$1,694Vol: $155,642
💰 FINANCE#19,411$88Vol: $12,854
📈 ECONOMICS#655,010$-80Vol: $1,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$49,979
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,114,070
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
682
total markets
Trades
15256B / 5014S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~382d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
51%
349W / 333L events
Realized PnL
$49,979
Win Rate
51%
349W / 333L
Profit Factor
1.09x
Avg Win
$372
Avg Loss
$-368

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $33,685 (0.6739811629977136% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$13,045
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$12,891
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$7,749
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$4,017
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?$3,758
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$3,210
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$2,932
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$2,833
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5$2,722
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)$2,501

Top Losers

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?$-18,762
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?$-8,632
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$-7,522
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$-5,663
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$-5,134
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?$-4,453
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners$-4,348
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$-4,208
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5$-3,907
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$-3,191

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.017
Sortino
0.017
HHI
266
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.020
Kelly %
8.6%
Half-Kelly
4.3%
Top-1 market
13%
Top-5 markets
26.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
32.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.7m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
26.4

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 150s — normal for humanCV 5.58 — diverse sizes (human-like)24% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock32 trades/day — high frequency1.1 markets/day — normal84% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
29.72
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)73.3%
Mid (20-55c)16.4%
High (>55c)10.3%

Sessions

#12
5/17/2026, 12:10:15 AM30 trades$40,4574 min
5/12/2026, 7:26:50 PM70 trades$20,11813 min
5/5/2026, 11:46:18 AM45 trades$15,2436 min
5/13/2026, 1:26:52 PM30 trades$13,66831 min
5/6/2026, 7:24:28 PM3 trades$12,5380 min
5/3/2026, 9:42:38 AM18 trades$12,0072 min
5/13/2026, 10:33:59 PM16 trades$10,1995 min
5/6/2026, 4:09:34 PM3 trades$9,9270 min
4/25/2026, 5:58:38 PM52 trades$9,1465 min
5/16/2026, 12:38:23 AM14 trades$9,04810 min
5/16/2026, 10:34:47 PM59 trades$8,87810 min
2/8/2026, 9:48:41 PM119 trades$8,48945 min
5/15/2026, 12:15:26 AM25 trades$8,40812 min
5/11/2026, 2:44:53 PM22 trades$7,5564 min
5/16/2026, 10:12:06 PM5 trades$6,9361 min
5/6/2026, 4:01:56 PM11 trades$6,7051 min
5/15/2026, 5:57:39 PM23 trades$6,2022 min
4/21/2026, 3:24:52 AM18 trades$6,1124 min
7/5/2026, 9:46:53 PM2 trades$5,9940 min
5/12/2026, 9:14:06 PM51 trades$5,90217 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-28
03-01
10-18
01-11
02-28
05-08
07-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 3 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 29.72/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L73.3 / M16.4 / H10.3