@arbdiscovery
#64,864670x14522999f234b77b148185d17a5e2b4f2756449c
~50d· 130 markets · 908 tradesVol: $35,2032026-08-02 06:41:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
67
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
33% (9/27)1.7/20
2.72x (win $1,941 / loss $712)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 5.28715/15
Sortino 48.89010/10
$+0.1071 per $1 invested5.4/10
HHI 1155 (27 markets)6.7/10
5/12 profitable days (42%)2.9/10
Max DD 18% of peak ($221 / $1,228)10/10
Badges
4Profitable
PnL $+1,475
Contrarian
65% entries < $0.55
Cool Head
Max DD 18%
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
8🏛️ POLITICS#23,200$660Vol: $23,469
🎭 CULTURE#6,542$673Vol: $8,999
💰 FINANCE#16,729$116Vol: $1,185
📈 ECONOMICS#23,625$30Vol: $720
⚽ SPORTS#1,243,066$-6Vol: $687
🌤️ WEATHER#198,224$-1Vol: $68
💻 TECH#27,872$4Vol: $63
₿ CRYPTO#701,817$-0Vol: $12
Overview
#1Net PnL
$1,475
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$35,203
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
130
total markets
Trades
300B / 608S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~50d
Periods
#2Today
$-69
Vol: $0
Week
$-63
Vol: $0
Month
$-155
Vol: $65
All Time
$1,475
Vol: $35,203
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
33%
9W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$1,475
Win Rate
33%
9W / 18L
Profit Factor
2.72x
Avg Win
$216
Avg Loss
$-42
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,902 (1.289421942587495% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$1,770
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?$77
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$55
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$15
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$10
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?$9
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?$1
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$1
Top Losers
Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$-136
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$-127
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?$-104
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$-59
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$-46
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$-42
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$-41
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$-39
Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$-34
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21?$-25
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.265
Sortino
2.108
HHI
9
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.315
Kelly %
5.3%
Half-Kelly
2.6%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
5.2%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
12.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0h
between trades
Avg Gap
2.8h
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.1
Bot Detection
#625
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3630s — normal for humanCV 2.85 — diverse sizes (human-like)23% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock13 trades/day — very active1.8 markets/day — normal33% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 17:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
5.81
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)26%
Mid (20-55c)38.7%
High (>55c)35.3%
Sessions
#127/26/2026, 2:53:21 PM2 trades$1,4990 min
7/7/2026, 12:22:16 PM3 trades$1,4900 min
7/3/2026, 3:45:58 AM14 trades$1,1437 min
7/3/2026, 4:49:43 AM6 trades$9990 min
7/3/2026, 6:59:22 AM8 trades$9240 min
7/17/2026, 8:30:31 PM8 trades$7550 min
6/26/2026, 7:56:32 PM3 trades$7530 min
7/6/2026, 2:28:13 PM2 trades$7500 min
6/23/2026, 5:17:01 PM11 trades$7463 min
7/11/2026, 12:42:49 PM5 trades$7260 min
6/30/2026, 3:02:11 PM6 trades$5760 min
7/3/2026, 6:19:14 AM5 trades$5110 min
7/31/2026, 1:33:03 AM3 trades$5050 min
7/2/2026, 11:56:40 PM6 trades$4908 min
6/23/2026, 6:16:10 PM7 trades$4370 min
7/8/2026, 9:31:13 PM8 trades$4234 min
6/26/2026, 2:33:14 PM12 trades$4190 min
7/3/2026, 3:26:10 AM9 trades$3950 min
7/13/2026, 1:35:32 PM4 trades$3870 min
6/30/2026, 11:48:05 AM12 trades$3660 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-26
06-13
06-22
06-24
06-29
07-03
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 31 days (recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
67% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.81/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L26 / M38.7 / H35.3