Lavincey

@Lavincey

#2,69156

0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595

~148d· 12823 markets · 1366296 tradesVol: $34,085,135 @Lavincey_2026-08-02 05:29:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

40% (4992/12520)4.9/20
1.07x (win $49,620 / loss $46,307)3.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.24115/15
Sortino 3.90010/10
$+0.0143 per $1 invested0.7/10
HHI 8 (12520 markets)10/10
80/148 profitable days (54%)6/10
Max DD 41% of peak ($1,411 / $3,443)5.8/10

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+68,559
Contrarian
65% entries < $0.55
Diamond Hands
0% sells
Whale
$231,188 invested
High Roller
$1,384/day
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
SPORTS#1,875,670$-9,785Vol: $11,262,255
🏛️ POLITICS#1,472$32,716Vol: $7,647,188
🌤️ WEATHER#86$19,471Vol: $5,224,533
🎭 CULTURE#1,292$6,162Vol: $2,771,189
💰 FINANCE#1,114$4,799Vol: $864,180
📈 ECONOMICS#3,858$690Vol: $566,439
CRYPTO#1,603,948$-746Vol: $225,757
📢 MENTIONS#1,308$956Vol: $163,171
💻 TECH#1,770$705Vol: $114,138

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$68,559
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$34,085,135
Total Redeem
$68,690
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
12823
total markets
Trades
27249B / 278S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~148d

Periods

#2
Today
$29
Vol: $0
Week
$-1,181
Vol: $0
Month
$-43
Vol: $0
All Time
$68,559
Vol: $34,085,135

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
37%
21907W / 37275L events
Realized PnL
$68,559
Win Rate
37%
21907W / 37275L
Profit Factor
1.07x
Avg Win
$10
Avg Loss
$-6

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,942 (0.02833229601985224% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?$1,222
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$484
Spurs vs. Knicks$237
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?$229
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$209
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$208
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$206
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$205
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?$176
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner$168

Top Losers

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-311
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-277
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$-179
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$-179
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$-167
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21?$-166
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?$-147
Will Trump visit China by April 30?$-143
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$-141
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21?$-130

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.117
Sortino
0.173
HHI
7
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.015
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.7%
Top-5 markets
2.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8181.4
Very active
Markets / Day
76.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.6m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.54
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
55 min
Avg Trades / Session
46.6

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 150s — normal for humanCV 1.54 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock8181 trades/day — automation77 markets/day — mass coverage2% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.14
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28.5%
Mid (20-55c)36.7%
High (>55c)34.8%

Sessions

#12
6/14/2026, 3:25:18 PM275 trades$2,727272 min
4/7/2026, 10:28:39 PM78 trades$1,52666 min
6/11/2026, 7:23:55 PM78 trades$796100 min
6/15/2026, 3:48:39 PM103 trades$776109 min
6/14/2026, 9:08:39 PM76 trades$67363 min
6/11/2026, 2:46:52 PM69 trades$65198 min
6/15/2026, 11:31:51 PM93 trades$651108 min
3/31/2026, 8:00:27 PM44 trades$64455 min
6/11/2026, 12:43:34 AM75 trades$643100 min
6/13/2026, 7:35:01 PM72 trades$58970 min
6/11/2026, 4:54:48 PM64 trades$55969 min
6/11/2026, 6:08:33 PM53 trades$54368 min
6/6/2026, 5:36:12 AM72 trades$53237 min
6/7/2026, 12:42:13 PM29 trades$52341 min
4/7/2026, 8:51:33 PM30 trades$49437 min
4/15/2026, 5:33:16 AM9 trades$48518 min
6/17/2026, 4:09:07 AM57 trades$48193 min
6/13/2026, 2:51:57 PM42 trades$45947 min
6/16/2026, 2:03:25 AM82 trades$45499 min
4/7/2026, 1:19:31 AM22 trades$43730 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-13
03-09
04-02
04-26
05-22
06-15
07-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 25 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
6% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.14/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L28.5 / M36.7 / H34.8