@RISK-IS-NEVER-OK

#40765

0x28059b3fb7af7ed76d83dc9121bbb72ec7cf76ed

~75d· 487 markets · 7629 tradesVol: $12,117,3802026-08-02 05:08:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

65
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

47% (227/487)8.3/20
1.28x (win $2,149,991 / loss $1,674,205)6.1/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.12815/15
Sortino 3.78010/10
$+0.1740 per $1 invested8.7/10
HHI 140 (487 markets)10/10
33/75 profitable days (44%)3.5/10
Max DD 54% of peak ($312,423 / $578,913)3.2/10

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+501,397
Contrarian
84% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 15.7 entries/market
Whale
$2,734,233 invested
High Roller
$4,313/day
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
72% maker orders

Categories

1
SPORTS#229$497,395Vol: $10,199,380

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$501,397
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$12,117,380
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
487
total markets
Trades
5526B / 2103S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~75d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,329
Vol: $0
Week
$-10,119
Vol: $0
Month
$-12,641
Vol: $250,871
All Time
$501,397
Vol: $12,117,380

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
47%
227W / 260L events
Realized PnL
$501,397
Win Rate
47%
227W / 260L
Profit Factor
1.28x
Avg Win
$9,471
Avg Loss
$-6,591

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $567,584 (1.1320069077447348% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$198,900
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score$193,686
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2$174,999
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$146,665
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)$135,644
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?$101,588
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)$77,896
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)$69,946
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres$68,388
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score$55,842

Top Losers

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?$-106,382
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?$-97,698
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score$-97,642
Knicks vs. Spurs$-92,085
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score$-89,034
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score$-86,600
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$-60,349
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score$-51,223
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score$-50,002
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5$-48,840

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.111
Sortino
0.168
HHI
154
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.174
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4%
Top-5 markets
18.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.0
Active
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
15s
between trades
Avg Gap
21.0m
between trades
Night Trading
37%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.89
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
42.6

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 15s — normal for humanCV 5.89 — diverse sizes (human-like)37% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock12 trades/day — very active0.8 markets/day — normal72% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.67
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.3%
Mid (20-55c)67.9%
High (>55c)15.9%

Sessions

#12
6/15/2026, 6:48:21 PM5 trades$153,0001 min
6/24/2026, 2:05:35 AM91 trades$125,3833 min
6/3/2026, 8:30:39 PM6 trades$123,1371 min
6/20/2026, 12:20:37 AM6 trades$119,2137 min
6/18/2026, 11:35:17 PM54 trades$102,3235 min
6/14/2026, 1:48:00 AM45 trades$100,9666 min
7/1/2026, 7:08:34 PM7 trades$98,2804 min
6/18/2026, 6:27:43 PM181 trades$97,02017 min
6/22/2026, 4:35:07 PM18 trades$95,62920 min
6/14/2026, 7:57:58 PM30 trades$95,1181 min
6/9/2026, 5:45:00 PM8 trades$94,1690 min
6/23/2026, 2:16:37 AM44 trades$86,3629 min
6/7/2026, 2:04:39 AM68 trades$83,66010 min
6/19/2026, 12:21:01 AM20 trades$79,9203 min
6/25/2026, 2:40:56 AM136 trades$79,33510 min
6/10/2026, 2:34:36 AM68 trades$64,7238 min
6/23/2026, 12:28:43 AM9 trades$61,1133 min
7/12/2026, 1:07:10 AM110 trades$60,32724 min
6/16/2026, 6:41:46 PM36 trades$59,5782 min
7/6/2026, 7:39:55 PM31 trades$58,5392 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-06
11-18
06-05
06-17
07-01
07-18
07-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 3 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.67/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L16.3 / M67.9 / H15.9