BlackswanDefi

@BlackswanDefi

#3,043,67423

0x28c39a9fa9f3fbf7de6067c0247e48176972da06

~217d· 178 markets · 8591 tradesVol: $5,359,345 @Blackswan_DeFi2026-08-02 07:01:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

50% (65/130)10/20
0.75x (win $36,154 / loss $48,354)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.2920/15
Sortino -1.7530/10
$-0.0053 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 705 (130 markets)9/10
37/79 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 249% of peak ($21,540 / $8,658)0/10

Badges

6
DCA Master
Avg 49.1 entries/market
Whale
$2,313,147 invested
High Roller
$8,232/day
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
95% maker orders

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#274,807$-47Vol: $4,121

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-5,829
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,359,345
Total Redeem
$2,000
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
178
total markets
Trades
4972B / 3619S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~217d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
50%
65W / 65L events
Realized PnL
$-5,829
Win Rate
50%
65W / 65L
Profit Factor
0.75x
Avg Win
$556
Avg Loss
$-793

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $17,065 (2.9275298420660762% of PnL)

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$12,018
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?$2,590
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?$2,457
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?$2,054
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$1,894
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1,892
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1,339
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$1,267
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1,224
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$1,212

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-7,197
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-5,615
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$-4,065
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$-4,064
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$-3,240
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$-2,520
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$-2,371
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-1,725
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?$-1,440
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$-1,379

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.067
Sortino
-0.072
HHI
456
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.006
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.3%
Top-5 markets
43%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.6
Active
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.3m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.78
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.4

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 202s — normal for humanCV 4.78 — diverse sizes (human-like)25% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock31 trades/day — high frequency0.6 markets/day — normal95% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
49.07
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.6%
Mid (20-55c)16.7%
High (>55c)71.8%

Sessions

#12
12/21/2025, 8:34:16 PM2 trades$65,8651 min
12/15/2025, 2:32:25 AM1 trades$46,3420 min
12/12/2025, 4:28:36 PM1 trades$43,8300 min
11/9/2025, 5:05:39 AM2 trades$42,8950 min
5/22/2026, 4:41:42 PM16 trades$42,5902 min
12/16/2025, 6:23:07 PM1 trades$40,9570 min
12/4/2025, 3:03:43 AM7 trades$39,7604 min
12/3/2025, 9:30:45 PM8 trades$39,72010 min
12/3/2025, 7:47:05 PM2 trades$39,3620 min
4/13/2026, 3:24:13 PM16 trades$35,34411 min
4/13/2026, 5:37:51 PM1 trades$35,3080 min
4/14/2026, 6:24:02 PM14 trades$35,2544 min
12/22/2025, 2:57:48 AM1 trades$32,9320 min
4/14/2026, 7:34:28 PM1 trades$32,6030 min
12/13/2025, 4:15:11 PM3 trades$31,5120 min
4/3/2026, 12:30:49 PM12 trades$30,4934 min
12/17/2025, 3:59:20 PM7 trades$29,91017 min
4/2/2026, 4:10:39 PM1 trades$28,7150 min
12/26/2025, 2:49:45 PM1 trades$28,4490 min
4/3/2026, 8:35:23 AM7 trades$28,1346 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-22
11-10
11-30
02-18
03-25
04-22
06-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 176 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
42.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 49.07/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L11.6 / M16.7 / H71.8