ElsaBertha

@ElsaBertha

#1,274,98810

0x7038a35dda1518585e6699c21762da659a48d48b

~15d· 77 markets · 244 tradesVol: $5602026-08-02 08:02:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

21% (16/76)0/20
0.60x (win $1 / loss $1)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.6980/15
Sortino -3.1570/10
$-0.0014 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 231 (76 markets)10/10
3/15 profitable days (20%)0/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($1 / $0)0/10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$560
Total Redeem
$1
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
77
total markets
Trades
89B / 155S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~15d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
21%
16W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$-1
Win Rate
21%
16W / 60L
Profit Factor
0.59x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $0 (0.3804347826086956% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 20?$0
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$0
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 7?$0
Will Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?$0
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$0
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?$0
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?$0
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6?$0
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 6?$0
Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch?$0

Top Losers

Will Folded by Kehlani be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?$-1
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31? $-0
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$-0
Will Hunter Brown win the 2025 AL Cy Young?$-0
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?$-0
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 5?$-0
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $70?$-0
Palisades fire burns 15,000-20,000 acres by Friday?$-0
Will Lincoln Riley be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?$-0
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.137
Sortino
-0.131
HHI
231
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.001
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.1%
Top-5 markets
20.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
12/24
Extended
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
20s
between trades
Avg Gap
50s
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
21
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.6

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 20s — normal for humanCV 0.76 — diverse sizes (human-like)12% night trades — normal pattern12/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal9% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.18
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)96.6%

Sessions

#12
4/28/2026, 2:21:48 AM22 trades$856 min
8/29/2025, 11:56:35 AM60 trades$6514 min
2/27/2026, 4:44:13 PM12 trades$596 min
10/19/2025, 7:17:23 AM31 trades$5727 min
3/12/2026, 5:11:09 AM8 trades$514 min
3/21/2026, 9:52:09 AM11 trades$504 min
2/4/2026, 6:55:45 PM12 trades$3110 min
6/6/2026, 10:09:40 AM14 trades$295 min
2/4/2026, 6:42:47 PM6 trades$257 min
6/6/2026, 10:21:18 AM6 trades$201 min
11/8/2025, 6:32:53 PM12 trades$167 min
6/29/2026, 4:33:55 PM4 trades$120 min
10/19/2025, 8:11:45 AM3 trades$112 min
6/29/2026, 4:26:34 PM4 trades$111 min
1/20/2026, 9:05:20 AM9 trades$109 min
12/13/2025, 5:24:15 PM12 trades$109 min
10/19/2025, 7:53:35 AM6 trades$710 min
1/10/2025, 10:32:11 AM6 trades$64 min
2/21/2025, 7:41:56 AM4 trades$31 min
12/13/2025, 5:19:03 PM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-10
08-29
11-08
12-31
02-04
03-12
04-28
06-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
6% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
63.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.18/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L3.4 / M0 / H96.6