@manchot
#15,828500x74e6c1260ac5448c00eb63e1f6894ecd090c99e8
~297d· 841 markets · 5146 tradesVol: $1,128,4162026-08-02 05:29:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
50
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
63% (505/802)16.5/20
1.08x (win $50,892 / loss $46,969)3.5/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.2875.4/15
Sortino 0.6096.1/10
$+0.0141 per $1 invested0.7/10
HHI 110 (802 markets)10/10
147/240 profitable days (61%)7.8/10
Max DD 81% of peak ($16,828 / $20,724)0/10
Badges
7Sniper
Win rate 63%
Profitable
PnL $+9,186
DCA Master
Avg 5.8 entries/market
Whale
$278,903 invested
Consistent
147/240 profitable days
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
9🏛️ POLITICS#8,031$3,520Vol: $831,784
🎭 CULTURE#5,081$983Vol: $112,260
⚽ SPORTS#40,684$896Vol: $62,028
💻 TECH#685$2,510Vol: $41,032
📈 ECONOMICS#11,729$111Vol: $37,808
₿ CRYPTO#24,150$1,531Vol: $24,106
💰 FINANCE#646,998$-396Vol: $9,278
📢 MENTIONS#6,609$86Vol: $7,294
🌤️ WEATHER#273,169$-42Vol: $1,234
Overview
#1Net PnL
$9,186
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,128,416
Total Redeem
$13,235
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
841
total markets
Trades
3647B / 1499S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~297d
Periods
#2Today
$1,117
Vol: $1,625
Week
$1,059
Vol: $1,625
Month
$1,509
Vol: $7,101
All Time
$9,186
Vol: $1,128,416
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
63%
505W / 297L events
Realized PnL
$9,186
Win Rate
63%
505W / 297L
Profit Factor
1.08x
Avg Win
$101
Avg Loss
$-167
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $19,729 (2.1476025324502848% of PnL)
Top Winners
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$13,881
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$3,288
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?$2,560
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1,620
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$1,266
BitBoy convicted?$1,145
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?$1,124
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$895
Will Trump visit China by May 15?$881
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?$799
Top Losers
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$-4,981
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$-3,331
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-3,121
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$-2,873
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$-2,295
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$-1,939
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?$-1,660
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-1,260
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$-1,079
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?$-1,059
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.015
Sortino
0.022
HHI
73
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.017
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
12.3%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
12.8
Active
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.79
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
15.5
Bot Detection
#625
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 376s — normal for humanCV 2.79 — diverse sizes (human-like)19% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock13 trades/day — very active2.1 markets/day — normal69% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 22:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
5.79
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)16.3%
Mid (20-55c)25.1%
High (>55c)58.6%
Sessions
#125/18/2026, 6:37:27 AM25 trades$9,8573 min
5/26/2026, 8:25:57 PM5 trades$9,0835 min
4/7/2026, 7:28:49 PM5 trades$8,4500 min
6/14/2026, 9:44:48 PM13 trades$7,2521 min
5/9/2026, 7:05:54 PM27 trades$6,78311 min
6/28/2026, 4:23:50 PM52 trades$6,3527 min
6/20/2026, 1:43:10 PM31 trades$6,2264 min
5/18/2026, 7:04:33 PM7 trades$6,0064 min
6/7/2026, 8:54:31 PM41 trades$4,8826 min
6/14/2026, 9:33:07 PM6 trades$4,5570 min
4/1/2026, 6:30:03 AM7 trades$4,5000 min
7/9/2026, 9:41:53 PM4 trades$3,7810 min
4/24/2026, 6:03:52 PM32 trades$3,6580 min
6/13/2026, 4:47:19 PM21 trades$3,60913 min
6/27/2026, 7:51:19 PM38 trades$3,54514 min
5/17/2026, 1:06:19 PM1 trades$3,5000 min
5/16/2026, 11:10:40 PM1 trades$3,4500 min
6/10/2026, 10:05:33 PM4 trades$3,3970 min
7/4/2026, 5:45:59 PM8 trades$3,3271 min
5/31/2026, 1:40:53 AM7 trades$3,1681 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-27
09-05
10-26
12-24
03-19
05-23
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 70 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.79/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L16.3 / M25.1 / H58.6