PhysGuy

@PhysGuy

#3,055,55027

0x845e74d8be1b215f13f239bb3636b706d956d22b

~100d· 1131 markets · 5800 tradesVol: $471,035 @PermianPirate2026-08-02 06:40:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

27
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

48% (535/1113)9/20
0.86x (win $40,621 / loss $47,217)0.8/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.6800/15
Sortino -0.8660/10
$-0.0373 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 338 (1113 markets)10/10
41/72 profitable days (57%)6.7/10
Max DD 302% of peak ($17,068 / $5,648)0/10

Badges

4
Contrarian
73% entries < $0.55
Whale
$176,868 invested
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,637,088$-11,224Vol: $354,131
CRYPTO#1,590,914$-540Vol: $57,811
💻 TECH#2,307$476Vol: $17,754
💰 FINANCE#6,562$524Vol: $16,546
SPORTS#1,655,008$-85Vol: $16,528
📈 ECONOMICS#5,092$442Vol: $4,925
🎭 CULTURE#28,609$57Vol: $848
📢 MENTIONS#10,878$36Vol: $352

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-10,267
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$471,035
Total Redeem
$1,682
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1131
total markets
Trades
4327B / 1473S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~100d

Periods

#2
Today
$-6
Vol: $205
Week
$-1,403
Vol: $205
Month
$-13
Vol: $903
All Time
$-10,267
Vol: $471,035

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
48%
535W / 578L events
Realized PnL
$-10,267
Win Rate
48%
535W / 578L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$76
Avg Loss
$-82

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $20,449 (1.991663825932816% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$8,919
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$7,076
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$4,454
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$4,111
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$2,154
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1,733
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?$1,096
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1,080
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$913
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?$555

Top Losers

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$-11,155
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-6,410
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?$-5,665
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$-5,289
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$-2,657
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$-2,212
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$-1,498
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$-894
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$-887
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$-794

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.035
Sortino
-0.032
HHI
303
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.040
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.1%
Top-5 markets
30.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
25.3
Active
Markets / Day
4.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
33s
between trades
Avg Gap
22.7m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.25
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.0

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 33s — normal for humanCV 6.25 — diverse sizes (human-like)36% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock25 trades/day — high frequency4.9 markets/day — normal36% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.95
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.6%
Mid (20-55c)62.7%
High (>55c)26.7%

Sessions

#12
6/11/2026, 9:17:01 PM53 trades$11,0648 min
6/15/2026, 8:25:07 PM8 trades$9,5551 min
7/1/2026, 1:53:25 PM5 trades$9,4142 min
6/25/2026, 4:17:56 PM29 trades$9,0583 min
5/28/2026, 3:21:14 PM8 trades$8,2705 min
6/19/2026, 8:57:37 PM7 trades$8,0880 min
7/7/2026, 2:35:50 AM10 trades$6,7551 min
7/13/2026, 7:16:55 PM18 trades$5,7424 min
5/27/2026, 1:41:03 PM11 trades$5,4450 min
7/8/2026, 4:19:52 AM8 trades$5,4279 min
7/13/2026, 8:10:19 PM29 trades$5,2285 min
7/7/2026, 3:56:53 AM5 trades$5,1460 min
7/7/2026, 12:10:08 AM3 trades$5,0314 min
6/13/2026, 4:46:16 PM24 trades$4,7572 min
6/25/2026, 4:56:47 PM6 trades$4,7150 min
7/12/2026, 9:28:10 PM13 trades$4,6410 min
6/20/2026, 6:14:56 AM15 trades$4,3745 min
5/15/2026, 2:21:14 PM2 trades$4,1520 min
4/7/2026, 11:11:53 PM3 trades$4,0264 min
6/8/2026, 3:34:34 AM2 trades$4,0000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-16
12-29
01-14
04-08
06-15
07-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 19 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.95/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L10.6 / M62.7 / H26.7