semantics

@semantics

#2,936,66326

0x8dcf7e03c1e09d0c25e7b6fecc9825bce6215668

~88d· 164 markets · 1909 tradesVol: $162,2762026-08-02 06:38:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

26
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

53% (60/114)11.3/20
0.44x (win $4,813 / loss $10,829)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.7070/15
Sortino -2.8990/10
$-0.1366 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 859 (114 markets)8.2/10
24/44 profitable days (55%)6.1/10
Max DD 898% of peak ($9,310 / $1,036)0/10

Badges

3
DCA Master
Avg 10.7 entries/market
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,114
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$162,276
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
164
total markets
Trades
1136B / 773S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~88d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
53%
60W / 54L events
Realized PnL
$-1,093
Win Rate
53%
60W / 54L
Profit Factor
0.44x
Avg Win
$80
Avg Loss
$-246

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,230 (2.955433947069805% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2,227
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?$515
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?$487
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$203
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$127
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$110
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$103
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?$77
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$75
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)$70

Top Losers

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?$-2,813
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-2,773
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$-2,213
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)$-397
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$-295
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-260
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$-241
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?$-238
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-209
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?$-204

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.140
Sortino
-0.105
HHI
363
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.231
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.9%
Top-5 markets
33.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
14.7
Active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
57%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.8

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 330s — normal for humanCV 1.83 — diverse sizes (human-like)57% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock15 trades/day — very active1.3 markets/day — normal56% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.69
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.3%
Mid (20-55c)18.4%
High (>55c)73.3%

Sessions

#12
7/7/2026, 10:52:58 PM2 trades$4,3590 min
6/25/2026, 8:43:23 PM19 trades$2,2759 min
7/4/2026, 10:33:07 PM10 trades$1,8730 min
5/1/2026, 1:41:26 AM4 trades$1,6952 min
5/17/2026, 12:31:38 AM21 trades$1,53612 min
4/4/2026, 3:43:47 AM7 trades$1,4014 min
6/23/2026, 12:35:17 AM16 trades$1,35016 min
7/1/2026, 4:57:59 AM1 trades$1,2660 min
7/29/2026, 3:16:51 PM17 trades$1,2268 min
8/1/2026, 5:38:48 AM15 trades$1,18117 min
4/5/2026, 2:52:11 AM17 trades$1,1609 min
7/2/2026, 2:47:38 AM10 trades$1,1228 min
4/6/2026, 1:07:03 AM21 trades$99210 min
5/24/2026, 1:12:19 AM15 trades$95310 min
5/24/2026, 12:27:48 AM6 trades$9081 min
7/25/2026, 2:51:54 AM15 trades$88415 min
4/7/2026, 2:56:11 AM16 trades$87311 min
5/24/2026, 11:30:46 PM28 trades$82010 min
7/7/2026, 2:22:58 AM12 trades$78610 min
8/1/2026, 2:27:06 AM16 trades$7108 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-05
05-21
06-09
06-21
06-29
07-07
07-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 87 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
40.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.69/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L8.3 / M18.4 / H73.3