@predictionponyft
230x9ee0bfa1ea6e81beaf301ff9c5fb0fe76c291006
~204d· 5166 markets · 35942 trades2026-08-02 04:12:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
45% (2269/5094)7.3/20
0.96x (win $171,574 / loss $178,599)2/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.4150/15
Sortino -0.6390/10
$-0.0188 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 44 (5094 markets)10/10
86/196 profitable days (44%)3.5/10
Max DD 135% of peak ($27,421 / $20,245)0/10
Badges
4Whale
$373,825 invested
High Roller
$1,707/day
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-37,950
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$373,825
Total Redeem
$8,357
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
5166
total markets
Trades
13243B / 22699S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~204d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
45%
2269W / 2825L events
Realized PnL
$-37,950
Win Rate
45%
2269W / 2825L
Profit Factor
0.96x
Avg Win
$76
Avg Loss
$-67
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $25,119 (0.6618867896686357% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?$9,182
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$8,344
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?$7,593
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$4,945
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?$3,926
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?$3,653
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$3,399
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?$3,185
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET$2,891
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$2,882
Top Losers
Will England win on 2026-06-23?$-8,172
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?$-6,658
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$-5,876
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$-5,249
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?$-4,514
Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot$-4,224
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?$-3,045
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?$-2,708
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?$-2,670
Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi$-2,275
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.022
Sortino
-0.027
HHI
56
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.019
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.4%
Top-5 markets
10.1%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
164.1
Very active
Markets / Day
23.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
20.0m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.38
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
28 min
Avg Trades / Session
134.5
Bot Detection
#660
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 100s — normal for humanCV 3.38 — diverse sizes (human-like)24% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock164 trades/day — automation24 markets/day — mass coverage31% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 8:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
6.97
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)18.7%
Mid (20-55c)30.8%
High (>55c)50.5%
Sessions
#126/12/2026, 8:00:34 AM772 trades$17,27747 min
6/21/2026, 3:25:56 PM46 trades$14,22520 min
6/12/2026, 9:42:12 AM590 trades$12,97510 min
6/17/2026, 7:49:46 PM22 trades$11,02911 min
6/22/2026, 4:58:38 PM85 trades$9,40732 min
6/16/2026, 9:05:01 AM369 trades$8,7805 min
6/18/2026, 5:33:01 PM279 trades$7,35674 min
6/12/2026, 10:15:43 AM311 trades$7,3065 min
6/25/2026, 2:08:22 AM266 trades$7,26783 min
6/14/2026, 5:20:57 PM187 trades$7,21345 min
6/12/2026, 10:26:21 AM451 trades$7,1471 min
6/20/2026, 4:53:40 PM229 trades$6,53952 min
6/22/2026, 5:36:04 PM42 trades$5,69623 min
4/27/2026, 4:21:40 PM36 trades$5,60122 min
6/20/2026, 9:46:38 PM106 trades$5,58042 min
6/19/2026, 8:09:16 PM10 trades$5,3182 min
6/12/2026, 12:29:28 PM314 trades$4,82983 min
7/17/2026, 4:21:46 AM12 trades$4,8000 min
6/25/2026, 8:13:47 AM16 trades$4,7652 min
6/20/2026, 2:08:20 AM309 trades$4,73985 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-22
02-01
03-05
04-06
05-10
06-13
07-21
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 107 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
63.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.97/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L18.7 / M30.8 / H50.5