VanillaCigar

@VanillaCigar

#130,11078

0xb53a6034b62746b30269f2db0a227a6d84ccc0a8

~116d· 627 markets · 2411 tradesVol: $131,843 @zizouelnachos2026-08-02 06:38:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

78
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

45% (281/623)7.6/20
2.56x (win $1,739 / loss $679)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.99915/15
Sortino 26.45610/10
$+0.0975 per $1 invested4.9/10
HHI 254 (623 markets)10/10
58/113 profitable days (51%)5.3/10
Max DD 6% of peak ($60 / $1,081)10/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+384
Lottery Player
48% entries < $0.20
Cool Head
Max DD 6%
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

8
₿ CRYPTO#47,147$408Vol: $92,175
🎭 CULTURE#148,209$1Vol: $21,794
🌤️ WEATHER#20,942$12Vol: $5,676
⚽ SPORTS#1,507,586$-27Vol: $5,373
🏛️ POLITICS#1,253,530$-9Vol: $4,272
📈 ECONOMICS#502,214$-1Vol: $1,944
💰 FINANCE#203,672$0Vol: $525
📢 MENTIONS#71,280$-0Vol: $15

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$384
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$131,843
Total Redeem
$15
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
627
total markets
Trades
1452B / 959S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~116d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$11
Vol: $0
Month
$11
Vol: $502
All Time
$384
Vol: $131,843

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
45%
281W / 342L events
Realized PnL
$384
Win Rate
45%
281W / 342L
Profit Factor
2.56x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $636 (1.6592443876619822% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 2?$426
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 12?$110
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 30?$101
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 20?$89
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 25?$75
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 1?$65
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 11?$57
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 9?$45
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 19?$42
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 23?$39

Top Losers

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 27?$-48
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 17?$-21
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 6?$-18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$-14
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)$-14
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 9?$-12
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?$-11
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 21?$-10
O/U 1.5 Rounds$-8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 8?$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.208
Sortino
1.214
HHI
269
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.098
Kelly %
24.2%
Half-Kelly
12.1%
Top-1 market
9.7%
Top-5 markets
30.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
56.9m
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 170s — normal for humanCV 2.36 — diverse sizes (human-like)6% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock9 trades/day — normal2.4 markets/day — normal68% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.84
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)47.7%
Mid (20-55c)39.5%
High (>55c)12.8%

Sessions

#12
4/2/2026, 1:05:55 PM20 trades$1,3396 min
3/16/2026, 2:34:57 PM12 trades$76313 min
3/16/2026, 5:41:33 PM3 trades$6312 min
4/6/2026, 2:06:39 PM15 trades$4821 min
3/16/2026, 3:43:49 PM7 trades$4154 min
3/30/2026, 11:27:10 AM3 trades$4021 min
3/22/2026, 2:50:53 PM2 trades$3721 min
3/12/2026, 1:30:37 PM10 trades$3474 min
3/15/2026, 5:38:13 PM6 trades$33210 min
2/25/2026, 1:25:42 PM20 trades$32814 min
3/15/2026, 12:12:29 PM6 trades$3287 min
4/1/2026, 12:45:13 PM12 trades$28210 min
3/26/2026, 1:45:11 PM5 trades$2591 min
3/12/2026, 12:50:49 PM2 trades$2390 min
3/14/2026, 6:44:31 PM4 trades$2363 min
3/22/2026, 3:37:23 PM4 trades$2353 min
3/14/2026, 6:25:39 PM6 trades$22913 min
3/11/2026, 1:37:57 PM13 trades$2260 min
3/15/2026, 4:08:11 PM7 trades$22213 min
3/13/2026, 1:38:45 PM6 trades$2186 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-13
12-03
12-27
01-25
02-24
03-23
07-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 69 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.84/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L47.7 / M39.5 / H12.8