@butwheredotheswallowsfly
#2,473,185200xc3c5178f9c36b252e0e14dfeaca8078af3a74076
~23d· 23 markets · 106 tradesVol: $19,6192026-08-02 06:39:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
20
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
56% (9/16)13.1/20
0.72x (win $89 / loss $123)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.1210/15
Sortino -2.5090/10
$-0.0291 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 2278 (16 markets)1.1/10
8/15 profitable days (53%)5.8/10
Max DD 155% of peak ($98 / $63)0/10
Badges
1Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Categories
5🏛️ POLITICS#1,532,010$-116Vol: $18,748
💰 FINANCE#55,729$10Vol: $444
📈 ECONOMICS#15,212$69Vol: $314
🎭 CULTURE#731,537$-23Vol: $70
₿ CRYPTO#1,240,838$-18Vol: $44
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-78
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$19,619
Total Redeem
$23
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
23
total markets
Trades
45B / 61S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~23d
Periods
#2Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-29
Vol: $0
Month
$-13
Vol: $50
All Time
$-78
Vol: $19,619
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
56%
9W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$-78
Win Rate
56%
9W / 7L
Profit Factor
0.72x
Avg Win
$10
Avg Loss
$-21
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $64 (0.8169195165852405% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$37
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$8
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$7
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$7
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$7
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$0
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$0
Top Losers
Netanyahu out by June 30?$-53
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by July 31, 2026?$-40
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?$-10
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$-8
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$-6
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.107
Sortino
-0.112
HHI
412
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.065
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.7%
Top-5 markets
35%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
1.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
15/24
Extended
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2h
between trades
Avg Gap
5.3h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.16
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
35
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0
Bot Detection
#60
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 4256s — normal for humanCV 1.16 — diverse sizes (human-like)2% night trades — normal pattern15/24 hours — normal schedule1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal37% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 17:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
3.5
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)17.8%
Mid (20-55c)17.8%
High (>55c)64.4%
Sessions
#125/12/2026, 4:50:06 AM2 trades$5560 min
6/9/2026, 11:05:12 PM2 trades$3330 min
5/11/2026, 4:22:53 PM3 trades$3230 min
6/22/2026, 5:28:55 PM4 trades$2615 min
4/25/2026, 9:35:12 PM2 trades$2330 min
7/7/2026, 5:22:37 PM2 trades$1980 min
4/24/2026, 11:11:54 AM2 trades$1610 min
6/14/2026, 10:50:51 PM2 trades$1510 min
6/14/2026, 11:01:58 PM5 trades$1410 min
8/1/2026, 11:10:03 PM2 trades$1000 min
5/7/2026, 10:34:07 AM10 trades$987 min
4/22/2026, 9:19:42 PM2 trades$800 min
7/9/2026, 5:10:56 PM10 trades$780 min
4/21/2026, 6:09:32 PM2 trades$400 min
5/1/2026, 8:51:58 AM5 trades$390 min
7/14/2026, 4:26:05 PM5 trades$370 min
5/9/2026, 9:00:59 PM4 trades$370 min
4/21/2026, 7:20:28 PM3 trades$360 min
6/28/2026, 4:34:56 PM3 trades$350 min
7/19/2026, 7:41:34 AM4 trades$340 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-21
04-24
04-29
05-09
06-09
06-22
07-13
07-19
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 77 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
57.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.5/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L17.8 / M17.8 / H64.4