AlwaysRegressing

@AlwaysRegressing

#3,047,15831

0xcbefb876789cc63b46b030af3cfe20b986f29ab0

~80d· 259 markets · 4549 tradesVol: $623,7672026-08-02 05:18:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

31
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

39% (79/202)4.6/20
1.10x (win $23,696 / loss $21,557)3.7/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.2795.2/15
Sortino 0.5055/10
$+0.0231 per $1 invested1.2/10
HHI 1153 (202 markets)6.7/10
23/49 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 82% of peak ($8,973 / $10,910)0/10

Badges

3
Contrarian
53% entries < $0.55
Whale
$92,569 invested
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,456,145$-46Vol: $485,536
🎭 CULTURE#814,790$-4,075Vol: $62,461
💰 FINANCE#568,474$-10Vol: $39,955
💻 TECH#256,448$-975Vol: $20,404
🌤️ WEATHER#297,569$-1,363Vol: $6,663
📢 MENTIONS#166,587$-141Vol: $4,691
SPORTS#183,967$38Vol: $1,560
📈 ECONOMICS#655,723$-85Vol: $1,509
CRYPTO#1,367,221$-43Vol: $830

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-6,758
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$623,767
Total Redeem
$158
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
259
total markets
Trades
1360B / 3189S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~80d

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$-202
Vol: $0
Month
$-553
Vol: $0
All Time
$-6,758
Vol: $623,767

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
39%
79W / 123L events
Realized PnL
$-6,758
Win Rate
39%
79W / 123L
Profit Factor
1.1x
Avg Win
$300
Avg Loss
$-200

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $20,035 (2.9646893261494616% of PnL)

Top Winners

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$17,275
Nothing Ever Happens: May$2,318
Nothing Ever Happens: March$442
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$442
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$241
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$235
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?$224
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$190
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026?$184
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$165

Top Losers

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$-8,771
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?$-6,420
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$-1,275
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?$-810
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?$-479
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?$-328
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$-299
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$-293
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$-244
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?$-208

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.015
Sortino
0.019
HHI
965
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.036
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
29.1%
Top-5 markets
47.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
36.4
Active
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.31
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
25.3

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 364s — normal for humanCV 2.31 — diverse sizes (human-like)23% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock36 trades/day — high frequency2.1 markets/day — normal25% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.74
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.7%
Mid (20-55c)28%
High (>55c)47.3%

Sessions

#12
5/28/2026, 4:40:33 AM6 trades$18,3795 min
5/29/2026, 6:14:49 AM110 trades$13,78422 min
5/30/2026, 6:42:36 AM16 trades$11,8763 min
5/29/2026, 9:02:00 AM78 trades$10,44320 min
5/27/2026, 9:48:22 PM33 trades$7,0218 min
5/29/2026, 4:26:26 AM128 trades$6,45823 min
5/27/2026, 11:59:57 PM50 trades$5,66513 min
4/12/2026, 7:10:11 PM45 trades$5,16714 min
5/25/2026, 5:58:54 AM16 trades$4,1465 min
5/30/2026, 11:31:45 AM26 trades$3,9325 min
5/27/2026, 8:12:32 PM19 trades$3,7881 min
6/23/2026, 3:05:56 PM61 trades$3,77523 min
6/22/2026, 1:58:22 PM7 trades$3,4770 min
5/26/2026, 1:37:14 AM19 trades$3,39612 min
6/22/2026, 12:37:05 PM10 trades$2,8624 min
6/22/2026, 10:20:53 AM6 trades$2,7670 min
6/22/2026, 1:34:47 AM17 trades$2,5852 min
5/28/2026, 9:21:28 AM13 trades$2,3893 min
6/21/2026, 6:18:17 PM17 trades$2,2975 min
4/12/2026, 1:13:13 PM31 trades$2,2275 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-09
03-25
04-02
05-26
06-05
06-15
07-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 47 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
70.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.74/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L24.7 / M28 / H47.3