@johnlkelly
#2,902,275400xd4b87375a3b916d7e5ca4428baabecadb9047bf1
~78d· 412 markets · 2739 tradesVol: $128,9292026-08-02 08:00:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
40
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
77% (260/336)20/20
0.80x (win $3,848 / loss $4,797)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.0750/15
Sortino -2.2480/10
$-0.0158 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 100 (336 markets)10/10
44/60 profitable days (73%)10/10
Max DD 609% of peak ($1,258 / $206)0/10
Badges
6Sniper
Win rate 77%
DCA Master
Avg 6.4 entries/market
Whale
$60,235 invested
Consistent
44/60 profitable days
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
8₿ CRYPTO#1,597,436$-625Vol: $65,001
🏛️ POLITICS#45,447$194Vol: $31,524
⚽ SPORTS#153,832$59Vol: $25,809
💰 FINANCE#638,862$-167Vol: $2,833
💻 TECH#250,500$-143Vol: $2,307
🎭 CULTURE#783,724$-111Vol: $1,052
📈 ECONOMICS#636,028$-29Vol: $363
🌤️ WEATHER#64,897$1Vol: $40
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-822
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$128,929
Total Redeem
$11
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
412
total markets
Trades
1055B / 1684S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~78d
Periods
#2Today
$-10
Vol: $0
Week
$19
Vol: $0
Month
$5
Vol: $0
All Time
$-822
Vol: $128,929
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
77%
260W / 76L events
Realized PnL
$-822
Win Rate
77%
260W / 76L
Profit Factor
0.8x
Avg Win
$15
Avg Loss
$-86
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $540 (0.6566301703163017% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?$227
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$183
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$130
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?$93
Will France win on 2026-06-26?$81
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by July 31?$72
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?$69
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$67
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$67
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$66
Top Losers
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-806
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime?$-424
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-396
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$-328
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$-200
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$-200
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?$-200
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$-200
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$-200
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$-194
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.108
Sortino
-0.085
HHI
69
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.020
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
11.5%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
24.9
Active
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.13
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
18.4
Bot Detection
#635
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 254s — normal for humanCV 2.13 — diverse sizes (human-like)20% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock25 trades/day — high frequency3.7 markets/day — normal38% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 23:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
6.38
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)1.2%
Mid (20-55c)2.9%
High (>55c)95.8%
Sessions
#127/25/2026, 11:20:18 PM201 trades$8,90119 min
6/17/2026, 10:46:29 PM58 trades$1,80521 min
6/20/2026, 6:27:04 PM4 trades$1,7812 min
7/2/2026, 1:46:01 AM5 trades$1,5383 min
6/20/2026, 12:44:04 PM53 trades$1,3988 min
6/20/2026, 1:02:19 AM11 trades$1,3300 min
6/21/2026, 1:55:11 AM8 trades$1,1470 min
6/21/2026, 8:58:29 PM7 trades$1,0262 min
6/21/2026, 1:59:29 PM25 trades$1,0200 min
7/3/2026, 8:07:07 PM12 trades$1,0200 min
7/12/2026, 4:42:01 PM2 trades$9740 min
6/30/2026, 12:15:26 AM17 trades$9548 min
6/25/2026, 10:45:08 PM2 trades$9440 min
6/18/2026, 4:01:28 AM4 trades$9181 min
7/1/2026, 10:22:46 PM16 trades$9040 min
6/21/2026, 4:45:47 AM5 trades$8684 min
6/26/2026, 7:44:29 PM2 trades$8600 min
6/30/2026, 10:40:53 PM9 trades$83611 min
7/10/2026, 2:39:34 PM20 trades$8245 min
6/15/2026, 10:49:39 PM7 trades$7735 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-07
05-31
06-12
06-22
07-02
07-14
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 44 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
61.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.38/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L1.2 / M2.9 / H95.8