Montaigne

@Montaigne

#3,060,09037

0x583582716cc49794789cacdf7aeffbdbd0b79404

~34d· 249 markets · 7556 tradesVol: $45,990,7632026-08-02 08:52:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

37
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

79% (179/226)20/20
0.80x (win $27,632 / loss $34,483)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.0290/15
Sortino -1.0750/10
$-0.0117 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1018 (226 markets)7.4/10
23/30 profitable days (77%)10/10
Max DD 333% of peak ($22,709 / $6,816)0/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 79%
Diamond Hands
6% sells
DCA Master
Avg 30.9 entries/market
Whale
$584,139 invested
Consistent
23/30 profitable days
High Roller
$5,900/day
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
95% maker orders

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,609,712$-883Vol: $633,010
📈 ECONOMICS#682,033$-14,521Vol: $47,393
💰 FINANCE#8,657$356Vol: $20,960
🎭 CULTURE#12,853$233Vol: $7,726
📢 MENTIONS#2,712$370Vol: $2,123
💻 TECH#9,756$38Vol: $160
SPORTS#377,306$3Vol: $26

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-14,329
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$45,990,763
Total Redeem
$417,155
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
249
total markets
Trades
7121B / 435S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~34d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $56,554
Week
$0
Vol: $56,554
All Time
$-14,329
Vol: $45,990,763

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
79%
179W / 47L events
Realized PnL
$-14,329
Win Rate
79%
179W / 47L
Profit Factor
0.8x
Avg Win
$154
Avg Loss
$-734

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $7,540 (0.5261986578605046% of PnL)

Top Winners

Netanyahu out by March 31?$3,260
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$2,157
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$2,123
Netanyahu out by June 30?$1,778
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$1,292
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$1,022
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$974
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$878
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$730
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$692

Top Losers

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$-8,485
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$-8,224
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?$-3,779
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$-3,077
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-2,468
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?$-1,563
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-1,099
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$-726
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-648
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?$-593

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.053
Sortino
-0.028
HHI
1044
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.012
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
27.7%
Top-5 markets
54.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
76.3
Very active
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
5.2m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
23.64
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
27 min
Avg Trades / Session
39.5

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 87s — normal for humanCV 23.64 — diverse sizes (human-like)19% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock76 trades/day — mass trading2.5 markets/day — normal95% maker — systematic market making

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.86
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.6%
Mid (20-55c)16.4%
High (>55c)81%

Sessions

#12
4/7/2026, 9:46:21 AM2 trades$162,3600 min
6/21/2026, 10:57:25 AM30 trades$47,8361 min
6/22/2026, 11:49:13 AM345 trades$44,8581 min
4/20/2026, 5:33:28 PM127 trades$9,76899 min
4/20/2026, 7:29:18 PM141 trades$9,647130 min
4/20/2026, 1:01:56 PM97 trades$7,37771 min
3/16/2026, 7:39:49 PM11 trades$7,0133 min
3/16/2026, 6:17:13 PM15 trades$6,71116 min
3/17/2026, 12:32:45 PM22 trades$6,65630 min
3/16/2026, 9:44:15 PM19 trades$6,02416 min
4/20/2026, 10:49:34 AM125 trades$5,808106 min
3/16/2026, 9:04:27 PM8 trades$5,38911 min
3/16/2026, 8:28:31 PM6 trades$5,30711 min
3/17/2026, 12:12:33 PM36 trades$5,27015 min
3/17/2026, 3:19:43 PM17 trades$4,98621 min
3/17/2026, 6:26:45 PM21 trades$4,84825 min
3/17/2026, 1:52:15 PM25 trades$4,47125 min
3/17/2026, 1:30:49 PM30 trades$4,33214 min
4/21/2026, 1:14:08 PM62 trades$4,20859 min
3/16/2026, 5:55:47 PM5 trades$3,88410 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-16
03-21
04-17
04-23
05-21
06-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 2 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.86/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L2.6 / M16.4 / H81