@geowatch
910x56456dff3a59eec8acf29806ef899ee923585d21
~54d· 197 markets · 885 trades2026-08-02 09:47:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
91
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
67% (121/181)18.4/20
3.64x (win $11,374 / loss $3,123)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 8.45915/15
Sortino 30.63010/10
$+0.0591 per $1 invested3/10
HHI 507 (181 markets)10/10
35/43 profitable days (81%)10/10
Max DD 10% of peak ($818 / $8,250)10/10
Badges
6Sniper
Win rate 67%
Profitable
PnL $+5,452
Whale
$139,681 invested
Consistent
35/43 profitable days
Cool Head
Max DD 10%
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Overview
#1Net PnL
$5,452
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$139,681
Total Redeem
$7,353
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
197
total markets
Trades
287B / 598S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~54d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
67%
121W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$5,452
Win Rate
67%
121W / 60L
Profit Factor
3.64x
Avg Win
$94
Avg Loss
$-59
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,221 (0.774176567904948% of PnL)
Top Winners
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$2,153
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$1,295
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$773
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$540
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?$507
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$421
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$378
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$347
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 14?$280
Nothing Ever Happens: July$218
Top Losers
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?$-1,000
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$-200
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$-200
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?$-200
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?$-153
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-127
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$-119
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$-108
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$-100
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?$-100
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.438
Sortino
0.753
HHI
584
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.060
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.3%
Top-5 markets
46.6%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
6.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.4
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.54
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
12.6
Bot Detection
#65
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 122s — normal for humanCV 2.53 — diverse sizes (human-like)6% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity6 trades/day — normal1.4 markets/day — normal18% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 20:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
4.64
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)4.2%
Mid (20-55c)13.2%
High (>55c)82.6%
Sessions
#125/26/2026, 9:17:02 PM6 trades$21,5272 min
7/24/2026, 1:26:24 AM21 trades$17,5990 min
5/1/2026, 9:05:20 PM49 trades$13,12115 min
5/31/2026, 8:35:45 PM15 trades$10,0362 min
4/17/2026, 8:06:36 PM2 trades$10,0000 min
6/11/2026, 8:39:27 PM60 trades$8,6719 min
4/29/2026, 8:59:18 PM21 trades$8,1210 min
5/2/2026, 2:42:56 PM2 trades$7,5270 min
3/14/2026, 7:58:19 PM7 trades$7,3397 min
4/29/2026, 9:04:28 PM18 trades$6,9600 min
3/26/2026, 10:20:23 PM14 trades$5,66214 min
4/10/2026, 4:02:27 PM7 trades$4,3760 min
5/12/2026, 3:50:39 PM5 trades$4,2250 min
5/10/2026, 11:18:03 PM17 trades$4,2238 min
4/1/2026, 1:01:35 PM2 trades$4,0000 min
4/14/2026, 4:27:44 PM25 trades$3,6716 min
3/4/2026, 4:59:05 PM8 trades$3,50011 min
5/14/2026, 8:33:27 PM20 trades$2,8243 min
5/13/2026, 2:58:18 PM82 trades$2,5804 min
3/9/2026, 3:36:41 PM1 trades$2,5580 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
03-14
03-29
04-25
05-12
06-03
07-24
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 2 days (recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
8% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
67.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.64/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L4.2 / M13.2 / H82.6