Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

0x271e1d96693db79b42a277dc5f64b61a72bc1a0fad85586fd28c7d89b9b96231

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 72.5% · CLOB volume $395.1k · whales 24h net $4.1k (41 wallets) · 7d net $40.1k · 4/15 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

72.5%

Yes

Implied No

27.5%

Volume

$395.1k

CLOB

Traders

636

5,986 trades

Yes 72.5%No 27.5%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$4.1k

Buy

$7.3k

Sell

$3.2k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$40.1k

Buy

$83.6k

Sell

$43.5k

Whales

104

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 72.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($4.1k)
•7d whale net still positive ($40.1k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-07-21 18:23:54

138.9¢$67

NOBUY2026-07-21 18:23:54

72.0¢$48

NOBUY2026-07-21 18:21:30

138.9¢$13

NOBUY2026-07-21 18:21:30

72.0¢$9

NOBUY2026-07-21 18:21:28

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xa0b6…3961	1,164	$307.8k	$38.8k	5
0x122c…fbed	1,567	$221.3k	$3.9k	5
0xd5cc…dea4	332	$192.8k	$-55.8k	4
0x8f69…7df1	199	$117.9k

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