Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009

Bullish lean

Implied Yes 88.6% · CLOB volume $1.27M · whales 24h net $23.7k (67 wallets) · 7d net $73.2k · 4/15 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

88.6%

Yes

Implied No

11.4%

Volume

$1.27M

CLOB

Traders

1,329

12,090 trades

Yes 88.6%No 11.4%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$23.7k

Buy

$74.4k

Sell

$50.7k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$73.2k

Buy

$199.4k

Sell

$126.3k

Whales

140

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 88.6%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($23.7k)
•7d whale net still positive ($73.2k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-07-21 14:36:33

113.6¢$245

NOBUY2026-07-21 14:36:33

88.0¢$211

NOBUY2026-07-21 14:36:33

88.1¢$4

YESBUY2026-07-21 13:17:39

11.9¢$1

NOBUY2026-07-21 13:17:39

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xa0b6…3961	1,164	$307.8k	$38.8k	5
0x122c…fbed	1,565	$221.3k	$3.9k	5
0xd5cc…dea4	332	$192.8k	$-55.8k	4
0x8f69…7df1	199	$117.9k

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