Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?

0xfa9f31ee9de9bdd91bc6d4729487a7facbc13cb8ca346d8228e8baf231ba6aa5

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 23.5% · CLOB volume $9.4k · whales 24h net $218 (10 wallets) · 7d net $1.4k · 10/10 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

23.5%

Yes

Implied No

76.5%

Volume

$9.4k

CLOB

Traders

125

632 trades

Yes 23.5%No 76.5%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$218

Buy

$645

Sell

$427

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$1.4k

Buy

$3.1k

Sell

$1.7k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($218)
•7d whale net still positive ($1.4k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 23.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($9.4k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-07-31 05:00:27

24.2¢$11

NOBUY2026-07-31 05:00:27

75.8¢$13

NOBUY2026-07-31 05:00:27

75.8¢$23

NOBUY2026-07-31 04:39:56

423.7¢$75

YESBUY2026-07-31 04:39:56

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x1229…df38	272	$14.6k	$557	6
0x0a9c…d552	327	$13.6k	$-800	2
0xb399…9435	322	$7.8k	$-1.1k	3
0x91e5…0947	101	$5.8k

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