Multi-outcome · 10 open
2nd richest person on December 31?
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $21.1k
67.5%
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $7.5k
30.3%
Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $1.4k
25.0%
Will Steve Ballmer be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $1.2k
25.0%
Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $1.9k
23.2%
Will Bernard Arnault be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $905
22.3%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $592
18.9%
Will Larry Ellison be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $913
9.6%
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $896
5.5%
Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31?
open · $9.7k
2.8%
Top event traders (30d)
- 0x907d…20c42 mkts · $407
- 0x5c53…8c301 mkts · $248
- 0x4ffe…9f711 mkts · $185
- 0x52b3…3a581 mkts · $153
- 0xfc03…f66f1 mkts · $110
- 0x8dab…d18f1 mkts · $102
- 0xaa81…aaf71 mkts · $62
- 0x489a…fff21 mkts · $40
- 0x8772…e1791 mkts · $33
- 0x46d1…a5801 mkts · $30
- 0x9cb3…13671 mkts · $30
- 0x4d5d…0f791 mkts · $30
- 0xe506…81b31 mkts · $30
- 0xb422…fc291 mkts · $28
- 0xda48…80fc1 mkts · $24