Multi-outcome · 13 open · 1 closed hidden
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
open · $13.4k
28.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
open · $6.6k
19.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?
open · $13.7k
18.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
open · $5.0k
10.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
open · $4.0k
7.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
open · $13.4k
6.3%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
open · $4.4k
3.9%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
open · $29.0k
3.4%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
open · $13.4k
1.8%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?
open · $3.4k
1.4%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?
open · $2.2k
1.4%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
open · $2.1k
1.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?
open · $2.4k
0.8%
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