Multi-outcome · 4 open · 1 closed hidden
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Volume $188.0kTraders 372Trades 4,495
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
open · $27.6k
19.0%
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
open · $19.2k
9.5%
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
open · $9.8k
8.5%
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
open · $11.5k
6.0%
Top event traders (30d)
- 0xb89f…1c444 mkts · $48.4k
- 0x73ec…f5bb1 mkts · $8.1k
- 0x7365…64da2 mkts · $6.9k
- 0x876b…17032 mkts · $5.7k
- 0xc3fc…484a5 mkts · $5.0k
- 0xa667…84fe2 mkts · $5.0k
- 0xe53c…e5694 mkts · $4.6k
- 0xd416…d9e22 mkts · $4.1k
- 0xbd14…76b45 mkts · $3.8k
- 0x9aeb…27291 mkts · $3.7k
- 0xb980…73b03 mkts · $3.6k
- 0xac4a…bf1e3 mkts · $3.6k
- 0x3839…e2ee1 mkts · $3.5k
- 0xc602…7fc14 mkts · $3.2k
- 0x6f67…102c5 mkts · $3.1k