Multi-outcome · 14 open
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $19.3k
30.0%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $16.6k
24.5%
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $4.2k
13.5%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $3.2k
13.0%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $8.3k
12.5%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $12.2k
11.5%
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $2.4k
9.5%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $2.5k
8.5%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $3.0k
8.0%
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $3.5k
7.5%
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $2.7k
7.5%
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $1.9k
6.5%
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $2.3k
5.5%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open · $6.8k
3.2%
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