Oracle profile · 0x1e10…beee

0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee

Weak calibration — at or below the random (0.25) baseline.

Calibration band: weak · Leaderboard: #693,552 of 698,028

Brier score

0.421

Accuracy

57.0%

Resolved positions

1,620

Resolved volume

$3.7K

Avg outcome rate

43.0%

Avg conf. on correct

56.9¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.101.0¢43.0%1,6200.421

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=1,620). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x1e109e389fb9cc1fc37360ab796b42c12d4bbeee. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.