Oracle profile · 0xc29c…4e35

0xc29cf9f9c3500e152630d4ea37471e4dbfbe4e35

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #5,507 of 698,028

Brier score

0.011

Accuracy

98.5%

Resolved positions

1,550

Resolved volume

$487

Avg outcome rate

1.6%

Avg conf. on correct

97.5¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	1.0¢	0.5%	1,517	0.005
0.10-0.20	13.9¢	30.8%	13	0.226
0.20-0.30	25.9¢	50.0%	12	0.287
0.30-0.40	33.0¢	75.0%	4	0.379
0.40-0.50	49.0¢	100.0%	1	0.260
0.80-0.90	84.4¢	100.0%	1	0.024
0.90-1.00	93.4¢	50.0%	2	0.452

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=1,517). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xc29cf9f9c3500e152630d4ea37471e4dbfbe4e35. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.