Oracle profile · 0xd3d8…e886

0xd3d858514853d6ef93cf3ccb2547fbb57d7ee886

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #663 of 137,694

Brier score

0.003

Accuracy

99.5%

Resolved positions

2,194

Resolved volume

$165

Avg outcome rate

0.5%

Avg conf. on correct

98.6¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.101.0¢0.2%2,1880.002
0.40-0.5044.8¢100.0%50.305
0.50-0.6053.5¢100.0%10.216

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=2,188). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xd3d858514853d6ef93cf3ccb2547fbb57d7ee886. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.