@manuelarias
#3,069,40950x0086cb69cb8540e5561ba1968718e3b305631b8c
~41d· 94 markets · 1060 tradesVol: $186,0892026-08-04 21:25:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
5
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
37% (34/93)3.3/20
0.10x (win $6,374 / loss $65,149)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.1560/15
Sortino -3.1190/10
$-1.3323 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 5320 (93 markets)0/10
12/33 profitable days (36%)1.6/10
Max DD 1328% of peak ($64,377 / $4,846)0/10
Badges
1Contrarian
67% entries < $0.55
Categories
5🏛️ POLITICS#1,640,877$-29,505Vol: $116,724
⚽ SPORTS#81,196$239Vol: $33,817
🎭 CULTURE#6,413$698Vol: $23,199
₿ CRYPTO#1,370,053$-44Vol: $12,237
💰 FINANCE#624,251$-65Vol: $114
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-28,677
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$186,089
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
94
total markets
Trades
205B / 855S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~41d
Periods
#2Today
$-22
Vol: $6,472
Week
$287
Vol: $10,266
Month
$-75
Vol: $12,254
All Time
$-28,677
Vol: $186,089
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
36%
33W / 59L events
Realized PnL
$-29,381
Win Rate
36%
33W / 59L
Profit Factor
0.1x
Avg Win
$187
Avg Loss
$-1,386
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5,623 (0.19136591381025622% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$2,957
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1,872
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?$794
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$146
Will France win on 2026-06-16?$79
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?$65
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?$61
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?$54
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$49
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?$36
Top Losers
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$-62,652
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$-754
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?$-567
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?$-472
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?$-105
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$-58
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?$-56
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$-47
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?$-40
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$-40
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.163
Sortino
-0.127
HHI
6348
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-1.140
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
72.7%
Top-5 markets
111.1%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
12.5
Active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.6h
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
16.7
Bot Detection
#625
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 278s — normal for humanCV 3.66 — diverse sizes (human-like)31% night trades — never sleeps20/24 hours — extended activity12 trades/day — very active1.1 markets/day — normal19% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 21:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
12.35
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)29.8%
Mid (20-55c)37.6%
High (>55c)32.7%
Sessions
#126/21/2026, 9:29:08 PM180 trades$44,07531 min
6/19/2026, 2:06:08 PM44 trades$18,5503 min
6/21/2026, 6:34:40 PM35 trades$13,1220 min
6/10/2026, 1:47:00 PM5 trades$7,1950 min
6/17/2026, 1:56:25 AM61 trades$6,9200 min
6/16/2026, 12:07:55 AM25 trades$5,1060 min
6/16/2026, 12:34:07 AM77 trades$3,7643 min
6/21/2026, 7:16:29 PM30 trades$2,4220 min
6/20/2026, 10:09:23 PM29 trades$2,2344 min
5/12/2026, 5:11:51 PM14 trades$2,1340 min
6/18/2026, 12:07:59 AM30 trades$1,9420 min
6/9/2026, 5:31:12 AM2 trades$1,6660 min
6/18/2026, 9:05:44 PM26 trades$1,3932 min
7/10/2026, 7:33:22 PM4 trades$1,3893 min
6/21/2026, 8:06:37 PM14 trades$1,1600 min
6/21/2026, 8:21:14 PM5 trades$1,1160 min
6/21/2026, 7:39:28 PM12 trades$1,1030 min
7/19/2026, 10:01:55 PM4 trades$1,0041 min
5/30/2026, 3:05:52 PM7 trades$8960 min
7/10/2026, 7:11:05 PM2 trades$8410 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-31
06-15
06-20
06-26
07-09
07-22
07-29
08-04
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 26 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
80.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.35/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L29.8 / M37.6 / H32.7